An overview of global energy scenarios by 2040: identifying the driving forces using cross-impact analysis method

Ghasemian, S.; Faridzad, Ali; Abbaszadeh, Payam; Taklif, Atefeh; Ghasemi, Abdolrasoul; Hafezi, Reza

doi:10.1007/s13762-020-02738-5

Cited by 70 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 50 publications

(35 reference statements)

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“…Many researchers claimed that in an uncertain context developing insights about possible outcomes of available choices can build realistic decision-making confidence (Schwartz, 1996). Scenarios are used widely to generate possible alternate futures (Hafezi et al, 2020;Ghasemian et al, 2020). In simple words, scenarios are stories about future behaviors of a system, society, technology, etc.…”

Section: Reliability and Lifementioning

confidence: 99%

Plausible scenarios for microturbine technology development: case study of an Iranian national technological program

Hafezi

Kakhki

Attari

et al. 2020

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Purpose Many devices needed electrical power to work, thus, major energy carriers such as oil and gas were used to generate electrical power via converter mechanisms and special technologies. The microturbine is a developed technology that is remarkable for its relatively high performance and ability to use several types of fuels. Microturbines are economically feasible because of the production of combined heat and power and small-scale applicability. This study aims to investigate microturbine technology development to support modern energy access in a developing country (i.e. Iran). Design/methodology/approach This paper presents a technology foresight methodology to create plausible futures of microturbine development in Iran when the country faces different driving forces and uncertainties. On other hand, the paper deals with a theoretical question: how to select appropriate foresight methodology? A procedure is proposed, which equipped the research team to select appropriate method combinations based on Popper’s diamond. Finally, the selected methodology includes defining focal issues environmental scanning and patent analysis aimed at developing five plausible scenarios for microturbine development future in Iran and creating shared visions among policymakers. Findings This paper proposed a series of scenarios on the path to developing microturbine technology. The scenario development logic in a participatory way contains a common four-quarter technique that attempts to depict scenarios based on two critical uncertainties inclusive energy price and technology obsolescence, which will shape the future. Also, a scenario is presented to describe a wild card that can disturb the desired futures. Such materials help decision-makers to policies under plausible conditions that guarantee a robust policy basket. Originality/value The originality of this paper can be studied based on two aspects, first, the methodology that provides a systematic method selections procedure in an emerging complex technology development program. Second, from the practical aspect, this paper is one of the very first attempts to manage the microturbine technology development program. Then, results are used to feed the policy-making process in Iran.

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Section: Reliability and Lifementioning

confidence: 99%

Plausible scenarios for microturbine technology development: case study of an Iranian national technological program

Hafezi

Kakhki

Attari

et al. 2020

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“…Approximately, 85% of the world's primary energy consumption has been supplied by fossil fuels in 2018 (BP. 2019 ; Ghasemian et al 2020 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A critical review of biogas production and usage with legislations framework across the globe

Abanades

Abbaspour

Ahmadi

et al. 2021

Int. J. Environ. Sci. Technol.

164

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This review showcases a comprehensive analysis of studies that highlight the different conversion procedures attempted across the globe. The resources of biogas production along with treatment methods are presented. The effect of different governing parameters like feedstock types, pretreatment approaches, process development, and yield to enhance the biogas productivity is highlighted. Biogas applications, for example, in heating, electricity production, and transportation with their global share based on national and international statistics are emphasized. Reviewing the world research progress in the past 10 years shows an increase of ~ 90% in biogas industry (120 GW in 2019 compared to 65 GW in 2010). Europe (e.g., in 2017) contributed to over 70% of the world biogas generation representing 64 TWh. Finally, different regulations that manage the biogas market are presented. Management of biogas market includes the processes of exploration, production, treatment, and environmental impact assessment, till the marketing and safe disposal of wastes associated with biogas handling. A brief overview of some safety rules and proposed policy based on the world regulations is provided. The effect of these regulations and policies on marketing and promoting biogas is highlighted for different countries. The results from such studies show that Europe has the highest promotion rate, while nowadays in China and India the consumption rate is maximum as a result of applying up-to-date policies and procedures.

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“…Population, economic, and industry growth have intensified the global energy demand. To date, fossil energy still dominates the energy supply worldwide (Ghasemian et al, 2020). However, crude oil production in some countries shows a declining trend, which is not in balance with the energy need.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimisation of Free Fatty Acid Removal in Nyamplung Seed Oil (Callophyllum inophylum L.) using Response Surface Methodology Analysis

Kusumaningtyas¹,

Prasetiawan²,

Putri³

et al. 2021

JST

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Nyamplung seed (Calophyllum inophyllum L.) oil is a prospective non-edible vegetable oil as biodiesel feedstock. However, it cannot be directly used in the alkaline catalysed transesterification reaction since it contains high free fatty acid (FFA) of 19.17%. The FFA content above 2% will cause saponification reaction, reducing the biodiesel yield. In this work, FFA removal was performed using sulfuric acid catalysed esterification to meet the maximum FFA amount of 2%. Experimental work and response surface methodology (RSM) analysis were conducted. The reaction was conducted at the fixed molar ratio of nyamplung seed oil and methanol of 1:30 and the reaction times of 120 minutes. The catalyst concentration and the reaction temperature were varied. The highest reaction conversion was 78.18%, and the FFA concentration was decreased to 4.01% at the temperature of 60℃ and reaction time of 120 minutes. The polynomial model analysis on RSM demonstrated that the quadratic model was the most suitable FFA conversion optimisation. The RSM analysis exhibited the optimum FFA conversion of 78.27% and the FFA content of 4%, attained at the reaction temperature, catalyst concentration, and reaction time of 59.09℃, 1.98% g/g nyamplung seed oil, and 119.95 minutes, respectively. Extrapolation using RSM predicted that the targeted FFA content of 2% could be obtained at the temperature, catalyst concentration, and reaction time of 58.97℃, 3%, and 194.9 minutes, respectively, with a fixed molar ratio of oil to methanol of 1:30. The results disclosed that RSM is an appropriate statistical method for optimising the process variable in the esterification reaction to obtain the targeted value of FFA.

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An overview of global energy scenarios by 2040: identifying the driving forces using cross-impact analysis method

Cited by 70 publications

References 50 publications

Plausible scenarios for microturbine technology development: case study of an Iranian national technological program

Plausible scenarios for microturbine technology development: case study of an Iranian national technological program

A critical review of biogas production and usage with legislations framework across the globe

Optimisation of Free Fatty Acid Removal in Nyamplung Seed Oil (Callophyllum inophylum L.) using Response Surface Methodology Analysis

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