An Ultra‐Short‐Term Wind Power Prediction Method Based on Spatiotemporal Characteristics Fusion

Abstract

Aiming at the problem that the existing ultra‐short‐term wind power prediction methods lack consideration of the spatial correlation characteristics of wind farms, resulting in insufficient prediction accuracy, an ultra‐short‐term wind power prediction method based on spatiotemporal characteristics fusion is proposed in this article. First, the fluctuation difference of the time window of wind power is input into the K‐means clustering algorithm to cluster wind farms into several clusters based on power fluctuation similarity. Then, the principal component analysis algorithm is used to reduce the dimensionality of numerical weather prediction data combinations in different regions to reduce the impact of redundant information on modeling accuracy. Finally, a convolutional long‐short‐term memory neural network is designed to extract spatiotemporal features of wind power data and output prediction results. The experimental verification on 18 wind farms in a province in China shows that the proposed wind power prediction method has an average root mean square error of only 0.1257 and has certain applicability.