An uncertainty-based interpretable deep learning framework for predicting breast cancer outcome

Abstract

Background Predicting outcome of breast cancer is important for selecting appropriate treatments and prolonging the survival periods of patients. Recently, different deep learning-based methods have been carefully designed for cancer outcome prediction. However, the application of these methods is still challenged by interpretability. In this study, we proposed a novel multitask deep neural network called UISNet to predict the outcome of breast cancer. The UISNet is able to interpret the importance of features for the prediction model via an uncertainty-based integrated gradients algorithm. UISNet improved the prediction by introducing prior biological pathway knowledge and utilizing patient heterogeneity information. Results The model was tested in seven public datasets of breast cancer, and showed better performance (average C-index = 0.691) than the state-of-the-art methods (average C-index = 0.650, ranged from 0.619 to 0.677). Importantly, the UISNet identified 20 genes as associated with breast cancer, among which 11 have been proven to be associated with breast cancer by previous studies, and others are novel findings of this study. Conclusions Our proposed method is accurate and robust in predicting breast cancer outcomes, and it is an effective way to identify breast cancer-associated genes. The method codes are available at: https://github.com/chh171/UISNet.