An uncertainty propagation methodology that simplifies uncertainty analyses

Meyn, Larry A.; Field, Moffett

doi:10.2514/6.2000-149

Cited by 8 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 1 publication

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“…These error sources can lead to misinterpretation of the results and thus reduce the accuracy of the characterization of thermophysical properties of the material. According to the law of propagation of uncertainties, the compound uncertainty (U c ) includes several components [62]. In the present case, it is essential to take into account errors related to the T-type thermocouples (U T ), the tangential gradient fluxmeters FGT (U ϕ ), and the data acquisition unit (U mod ).…”

Section: Evaluation Of Errors Related To Uncertaintiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Thermophysical Characterization of a Thermoregulating Interior Coating Containing a Bio-Sourced Phase Change Material

et al. 2022

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This paper presents the work carried out as part of a study of a proactive interior coating based on both plaster and a phase change material (PCM), intended to improve the energy efficiency of buildings. This bio-based PCM is composed of a mixture of vegetable oils, methyl stearate, and methyl palmitate micro-encapsulated into polymer capsules. These components with distinct thermal properties constitute a mixture that displays supercooling and proves difficult to characterize using methods known in the literature. This article focuses on the thermophysical characterization (i.e., thermal conductivities, thermal capacities, latent heat, melting temperatures) and numerical modeling of a sample of this coating tested in the laboratory. This characterization is derived from experimental measurements carried out on a fluxmeter bench and by inverse methods. A new model of PCM composite characterization is presented and simulated using Python; the output shows a high degree of accuracy in describing the thermal behavior of the coating, regardless of the thermal stress applied, even making it possible to represent the phenomenon of supercooling or partial melting/solidification.

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Section: Evaluation Of Errors Related To Uncertaintiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Thermophysical Characterization of a Thermoregulating Interior Coating Containing a Bio-Sourced Phase Change Material

et al. 2022

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“…The importance of incorporating uncertainty propagation through multi-fidelity/multi-disciplinary simulations cannot be understated [24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34]. One of the challenges in design is in the fact that performance analyses are often done deterministically for prediction and do not incorporate uncertainty (model, environment, random, human, etc.).…”

Section: Uncertainty Quantification (Uq) For Mdomentioning

confidence: 99%

MDO for Hypersonic Scramjet Vehicle Development (Invited)

Starkey

2014

19th AIAA International Space Planes and Hypersonic Systems and Technologies Conference

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The work overviews design/analysis methodologies for rapid assessment and optimization of scramjet-powered vehicle configurations and associated multidisciplinary performance metrics with an Aero-Servo-Thermo-Propulso-Elastic (ASTPE) analysis. These methodologies facilitate conceptual-to-preliminary hypersonic vehicle design and optimization. The ASTPE approach is aimed at developing an expedient procedure to inject essential preliminary design requirements and/or feedbacks in early stages of conceptual design in order to consolidate the conceptual design feature for a scramjet powered vehicle. Current research thrusts and advanced practices are also addressed.

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“…At the NASA Ames Research Center 11-foot transonic wind tunnel, Ulbrich and Boone (2004) have developed an algorithm to estimate the uncertainty of the test results based on the Meyn's uncertainty propagation methodology (Meyn, 2000), which is mathematically identical to the TSM technique or that recommended in the AIAA Standard (1999), yet is easier to implement due to its vector formulation. Similar to the TSM approach, the independent variables of the result parameters are identified, and their associated bias and precision errors are obtained from manufacturer specifications, calibrations, and past test experience.…”

Section: Review Of the Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainty Analysis of Test Data at the NRC 1.5-Meter Trisonic Wind Tunnel

Fakhraei

Weiss

2016

32nd AIAA Aerodynamic Measurement Technology and Ground Testing Conference

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Ainsi, tous les efforts d'amélioration de la qualité des données devraient être concentrés sur la balance de la demi-maquette et les instruments de mesure de pression, afin de réduire leurs incertitudes. Les résultats des analyses ont été validés grâce à une méthode alternative de propagation des erreurs ainsi que par la comparaison des incertitudes aléatoires calculées avec la variabilité observée des paramètres de sortie. Cela étant, des estimations plus détaillées des biais et des erreurs de précision dans les mesures de la balance dynamométrique pourraient être bénéfiques à l'algorithme. Mots-clés: analyse d'incertitudes, soufflerie, aérodynamique UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF TEST DATA AT THE NRC 1.5 METER TRISONIC WIND TUNNEL Samin FAKHRAEI ABSTRACTAn uncertainty analysis algorithm has been developed at the National Research Council of Canada (NRC) 1.5 meter trisonic wind tunnel in Ottawa, Ontario, in order to assess the data quality in the half-model experiments carried out by Bombardier Aerospace. The analysis follows the methodology recommended by the AIAA Standard S-071A-1999 to propagate the systematic and random errors in the measured variables through the complete data reduction routine, in order to calculate the overall uncertainties of the tunnel freestream parameters and the key aerodynamic force and moment coefficients in the form of a 95-percent confidence interval. Detailed breakdowns of the total uncertainties have been obtained to separately investigate the systematic and random components, and to identify the variables that have the largest contribution to the uncertainties. With the implementation of the developed algorithm, the uncertainties of the results are precisely quantified at every measurement point throughout an experiment. Hence, the analysis can be performed over a range of test conditions, aircraft model configurations, and angles of attack. The data of the most recent Bombardier experiments have been used to present the outcomes. The analyses reveal that the freestream properties are achieved with high accuracy at the NRC wind tunnel, as the uncertainties in the freestream Mach number and dynamic pressure are respectively limited to 0.4% and 0.7% of the desired nominal values. The uncertainties in the coefficients of lift and drag vary over the pitch sweep during a test due to the functional dependence on the normal and axial force, as well as the angle of attack. The magnitudes and the component breakdowns of the uncertainties in these coefficients also vary with the tunnel operating condition and from one test article to another. Nevertheless, the force and pressure measurements consistently appear to be the dominant contributors. Hence, any attempts to improve the data quality should focus on the half-model balance and the pressure measurement instruments to reduce their uncertainty. The analysis results have been validated through an alternative error propagation methodology, and also by comparing the calculated random uncertainties to the observed variability in the result par...

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An uncertainty propagation methodology that simplifies uncertainty analyses

Cited by 8 publications

References 1 publication

Thermophysical Characterization of a Thermoregulating Interior Coating Containing a Bio-Sourced Phase Change Material

Thermophysical Characterization of a Thermoregulating Interior Coating Containing a Bio-Sourced Phase Change Material

MDO for Hypersonic Scramjet Vehicle Development (Invited)

Uncertainty Analysis of Test Data at the NRC 1.5-Meter Trisonic Wind Tunnel

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