An Uncertainty Structure Matrix for Models and Simulations

Abstract

Software that is used for aerospace flight control and to display information to pilots and crew is expected to be correct and credible at all times. This type of software is typically developed under strict management processes, which are intended to reduce defects in the software product. However, modeling and simulation (M&S) software may exhibit varying degrees of correctness and credibility, depending on a large and complex set of factors. These factors include its intended use, the known physics and numerical approximations within the M&S, and the referent data set against which the M&S correctness is compared. The correctness and credibility of an M&S effort is closely correlated to the uncertainty management (UM) practices that are applied to the M&S effort. This paper describes an uncertainty structure matrix for M&S, which provides a set of objective descriptions for the possible states of UM practices within a given M&S effort. The columns in the uncertainty structure matrix contain UM elements or practices that are common across most M&S efforts, and the rows describe the potential levels of achievement in each of the elements. A practitioner can quickly look at the matrix to determine where an M&S effort falls based on a common set of UM practices that are described in absolute terms that can be applied to virtually any M&S effort. The matrix can also be used to plan those steps and resources that would be needed to improve the UM practices for a given M&S effort.

Estudio de la Incertidumbre en la Programación de Actividades usando la Matriz de Estructura Dependiente

“…La DSM a sido identificada como una herramienta potencial para representar actividades que presentan interrelaciones (Eppinger et al, 2008). Según la revisión bibliográfica realizada no hay trabajos publicados que consideren la incertidumbre en la DSM, sin embargo la DSM ha sido utilizada para analizar la incertidumbre en la toma de decisiones basada en modelación y simulación en el control aeroespacial de vuelos (Green y Blattnig, 2008).…”

Development of a Prototype Model-Form Uncertainty Knowledge Base

“…A means to date and update the data, information, experience and rules of thumb 7. Ability of users to rate the credibility 6,7 of the content and to provide comments about out of date or incorrect information that can be changed or access removed.…”

Towards a Credibility Assessment of Models and Simulations

“…The scale will help a decision maker, who may or may not have subject matter or M&S expertise, make decisions based on M&S results from others. , and Green et al 11 . Most of these were called maturity matrices rather than scales.…”