One of the main avenues to improve the skill of a numerical weather prediction system is to increase the accuracy of the initial conditions for prediction through the assimilation of a larger number of observations. This article discusses our work on assimilating cloud-affected radiances from microwave temperature sounding channels of the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit A (AMSU-A) satellite sensor, which are currently underused by the Met Office operational data assimilation system. Despite their importance, as measured by impact indicators such as the Forecast Sensitivity to Observations Impact (FSOI), most cloud-affected microwave data are discarded so as to avoid detrimental effects, as they are much more difficult to predict than clear-sky radiances. This is due to shortcomings in parametrization schemes (for example, large-scale cloud and precipitation, convection) in both nonlinear and linearized prognostic models, as well as radiative transfer models. As first demonstrated at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), these difficulties can be eased when observation uncertainties for cloud-affected radiances are inflated prior to assimilation as a function of cloud amount present in a given observed or predicted scene. Our results show that cloud-dependent observation uncertainty inflation for cloud-affected radiances provides beneficial effects on forecast skill over two three-month-long "all-sky" (nonprecipitating) data assimilation trials. In particular, root-mean-square error (RMSE) reductions in 500-hPa geopotential height forecasts of about 1% up to day 2 and in 10-m wind and 2-m temperature forecasts up to day 6 have been demonstrated. Also, our experiments show evidence of significant improvements in the fit between observations and short-range forecasts for lower-peaking humidity-and temperature-sensitive channels.
KEYWORDSall-sky, assimilation, cloud, microwave, satellite
1The assimilation of all-sky microwave radiances in 4D-Var was pioneered at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), where cloudand precipitation-affected radiances from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR/E) were assimilated operationally starting from March 2009. Currently, all microwave humidity sounders (over oceans, land, snow-covered land, and sea ice) and microwave imagers (over oceans) are assimilated at ECMWF in all-sky conditions This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.