An upper-branch Brewer–Dobson circulation index for attribution of stratospheric variability and improved ozone and temperature trend analysis

Ball, William T.; Kuchař, Aleš; Rozanov, Eugene; Staehelin, J.; Tummon, Fiona; Smith, Anne K.; Sukhodolov, Timofei; Stenke, Andrea; Coulon, Ancelin; Schmutz, W.; Peter, Thomas

doi:10.5194/acp-16-15485-2016

Cited by 9 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…The multicollinearity is projected into the solar signal through the volcanic aerosols and ENSO influence in the TLS, i.e., through volcanic and ENSO signatures operating in this region [ Mitchell et al , ]. The same logic may be applied in the upper stratosphere where the long‐term anthropogenic trend reveals even higher relative importance than the 11 year solar cycle variability [ Ball et al , ].…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Figure a shows that AR1 removes most of the autocorrelation in residuals but not completely. This finding is in agreement with the study by Ball et al [] concluding that AR1 was necessary but not sufficient. Furthermore, Figures a and b indicate that for periods prior to approximately 1975, AR3 would be able to completely remove the autocorrelation.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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On the aliasing of the solar cycle in the lower stratospheric tropical temperature

et al. 2017

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The double‐peaked response of the tropical stratospheric temperature profile to the 11 year solar cycle (SC) has been well documented. However, there are concerns about the origin of the lower peak due to potential aliasing with volcanic eruptions or the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) detected using multiple linear regression analysis. We confirm the aliasing using the results of the chemistry‐climate model (CCM) SOCOLv3 obtained in the framework of the International Global Atmospheric Chemisty/Stratosphere‐troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate Chemistry‐Climate Model Initiative phase 1. We further show that even without major volcanic eruptions included in transient simulations, the lower stratospheric response exhibits a residual peak when historical sea surface temperatures (SSTs)/sea ice coverage (SIC) are used. Only the use of climatological SSTs/SICs in addition to background stratospheric aerosols removes volcanic and ENSO signals and results in an almost complete disappearance of the modeled solar signal in the lower stratospheric temperature. We demonstrate that the choice of temporal subperiod considered for the regression analysis has a large impact on the estimated profile signal in the lower stratosphere: at least 45 consecutive years are needed to avoid the large aliasing effect of SC maxima with volcanic eruptions in 1982 and 1991 in historical simulations, reanalyses, and observations. The application of volcanic forcing compiled for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in the CCM SOCOLv3 reduces the warming overestimation in the tropical lower stratosphere and the volcanic aliasing of the temperature response to the SC, although it does not eliminate it completely.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the aliasing of the solar cycle in the lower stratospheric tropical temperature

et al. 2017

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“…SC signals estimated from different observations show varying zonally averaged spatial structures and magntudes (Austin et al, ; Dhomse et al, ; Maycock et al, ; Soukharev & Hood, ). The suggested reasons include different period length and date range (Chiodo et al, ; Kuchar et al, ); data sampling and instrument‐type (Hood et al, ; Soukharev & Hood, ); unit conversion between volume mixing ratio (vmr) and number density (Ball et al, ; Damadeo et al, ; Maycock et al, ); instrumental drifts (Li et al, ); artifacts in merged composites (Ball et al, ; Harris et al, ); and regression model setup, and proxies used, in the analysis (Ball et al, ; Chiodo et al, ; Marsh & Garcia, ; Kuchar et al, ). Inferring the SC from observations given these concerns is therefore challenging.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Upper Stratospheric Solar Cycle Ozone Response

Ball¹,

Rozanov²,

Alsing

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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The solar cycle (SC) stratospheric ozone response is thought to influence surface weather and climate. To understand the chain of processes and ensure climate models adequately represent them, it is important to detect and quantify an accurate SC ozone response from observations. Chemistry climate models (CCMs) and observations display a range of upper stratosphere (1–10 hPa) zonally averaged spatial responses; this and the recommended data set for comparison remains disputed. Recent data‐merging advancements have led to more robust observational data. Using these data, we show that the observed SC signal exhibits an upper stratosphere U‐shaped spatial structure with lobes emanating from the tropics (5–10 hPa) to high altitudes at midlatitudes (1–3 hPa). We confirm this using two independent chemistry climate models in specified dynamics mode and an idealized timeslice experiment. We recommend the BASICv2 ozone composite to best represent historical upper stratospheric solar variability, and that those based on SBUV alone should not be used.

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“…The radiative cooling by greenhouse gases dominates in the stratosphere over some warming caused by the stratospheric ozone increase and agrees with their time evolution shown in Figure 1. During the first 2015-2039 sub-period, the quadrupole structure of stratospheric temperature trends is observed in both scenarios, which is dynamically induced (Ball et al, 2016), and is barely observed in later sub-periods.…”

Section: Dynamic Linear Modeling (Dlm)mentioning

confidence: 91%

The future ozone trends in changing climate simulated with SOCOLv4

Karagodin‐Doyennel

Rozanov

Sukhodolov

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Abstract. This study evaluates the future evolution of atmospheric ozone between 2015 and 2099 simulated with the Earth System Model (ESM) SOCOLv4. Simulations have been performed based on two potential Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP): the “middle-of-the-road” (SSP2-4.5) and “fossil-fueled” (SSP5-8.5) scenarios. In both scenarios, the model projects a decline in tropospheric ozone in the future that starts in the 2030s in SSP2-4.5 and after the 2060s in SSP5-8.5 due to a decrease in concentrations of ozone precursors like NOx and CO. The results also suggest a very likely ozone increase in the mesosphere, upper and middle stratosphere, as well as at high latitudes of the lower stratosphere. Under SSP5-8.5, the ozone increase in the stratosphere is higher because of stronger cooling (> 1 °K/decade) induced by the greenhouse gases (GHG), which slows the catalytic ozone destruction cycles. In contrast, in the tropical lower stratosphere ozone concentrations decrease in both experiments and increase over the middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres due to the intensification of meridional transport, which is stronger in SSP5-8.5. No evidence was found of a decline in ozone levels in the lower stratosphere at mid-latitudes. In both future scenarios, the total column ozone is expected to be distinctly higher than present in mid-to-high latitudes and might be lower in the tropics, which causes a decrease/increase in the surface level of UV radiation. The results of SOCOLv4 suggest that the stratospheric ozone evolution throughout the 21st century is strongly governed not only by a decline in halogen concentration, but also by future GHGs forcing. In addition, the tropospheric ozone column changes, mainly due to the changes in anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors, also have a strong impact on the total column. Therefore, even though the anthropogenic halogen loading problem has been brought under control to date, the sign of future ozone column changes, globally and regionally, is still unclear and largely depends on diverse future human activities. The results of this work are, thus, relevant for developing future strategies for socioeconomic pathways.

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An upper-branch Brewer–Dobson circulation index for attribution of stratospheric variability and improved ozone and temperature trend analysis

Cited by 9 publications

References 58 publications

On the aliasing of the solar cycle in the lower stratospheric tropical temperature

On the aliasing of the solar cycle in the lower stratospheric tropical temperature

The Upper Stratospheric Solar Cycle Ozone Response

The future ozone trends in changing climate simulated with SOCOLv4

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