Análise das projeções climáticas futuras para a bacia do Rio Pajeú simuladas pelo modelo regional Eta-Hadgem2-ES

Abstract

This work aimed to analyze future climate data, from the regional climate model ETA-HADGEM, to generate future scenarios of precipitation to the Pajeú River basin. In the methodology, it was possible to obtain historical series rainfall data from rainfall stations located in the Pajeú River basin, from government agencies ANA, APAC, INMET. From these data, an analogy was made between the geographic coordinates of the rainfall stations, which contain data observed in the basin area, and the ETA model data for the same coordinates, enabling a comparison between the variables observed and simulated by ETA-HADGEM . Seasonal graphs were developed and statistical analyzes of PBIAS and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) were applied. Data were corrected in CMhyd program.With the already corrected data, it was possible to make a comparative projection of rainfall rates between the observed data, corrected historical data, uncorrected data and future data between the years 2006 and 2037, 2038 and 2068 and 2069 to 2099. The results indicate that the scenario from 2038 to 2068 presents values that are more distant from those observed and from other scenarios, with higher rainfall rates, indicating a period with more extreme rainfall among the analyzed scenarios. However, in most of the rainfall stations, the scenario that comes closest to the observed data is for the period between 2006 and 2037. Forecasts point to a high rate of precipitation between January and March and drier periods in the other months of the year.

Assessment of Water Availability and Environmental Influence on People’s Lives in a Small Basin in the Hinterland of Pernambuco, Using the SUPer and UAV

“…It is noted that the calibration control points that the model presented were r 2 above 0.67, as shown in Figure 2. Different studies have already been developed for the basin with the aim of contributing to the better management of water resources in the basin [30].…”

“…It is noted that the calibration control points that the model pres above 0.67, as shown in Figure 2. Different studies have already been dev basin with the aim of contributing to the better management of water re basin [30]. The average annual water balance of basin 73 presents an average annual precipitation of 661 mm, surface runoff of 73 mm, lateral flow of 20 mm, return flow of 67 mm, evaporation and transpiration of 459 mm and potential evapotranspiration of 1788 mm, as seen in Figure 3.…”