Analise de tendência nas variáveis meteorológicas de Porto Velho - Rondônia

Abstract

A B S T R A C T Various knowledge areas have discussed climate changes in the Amazonian region.There are increasing speculations whether the human, economic and environmental activities impact climate at, both at global or regional scale. Relevant questions can be raised, and this research aimed to evaluate pattern changes at meteorological variables such as air temperature (mean, maximum and minimum), mean relative humidity and annual rainfall at Porto Velho county, Rondônia, at Brazil's northern region. It was analyzed time series variables registered at Porto Velho, concerning the period of 1945 to 2005. The results showed that during this time the series of air temperature (mean, maximum and minimum), relative air humidity and rainfall had both positive and negative deviations concerning its historical mean, leading to no significant trends to either increases or decreasing values. Nevertheless, the observed results for the studied period (1945 to 2005) corroborate the scenarios of climate change impacts due to Amazonian deforestation. However, the available data along the statistical tests applied were not enough to prove that significant climate changes happened in this region. Keywords: Amazonian region, climate change, historical data. R E S U M ODiversas áreas de conhecimento têm discutido as mudanças climáticas na região Amazônica. São crescentes as especulações de como as atividades humanas, econômicas e ambientais, tanto em nível global, como regional, influenciam o clima de uma determinada região. Questões pertinentes a este tema podem ser levantadas, e esse estudo objetivou avaliar se ocorreram mudanças nos padrões das variáveis meteorológicas: temperatura do ar (média, máxima e mínima), umidade relativa média do ar e no total anual de precipitação pluviométrica, no município de Porto Velho, Rondônia, na região Norte do Brasil. Foram analisadas as séries temporais das variáveis meteorológicas: temperatura do ar (média, máxima e mínima), umidade relativa do ar e precipitação pluviométrica, do município de Porto Velho, referente ao período de 1945 a 2005. No período de estudo, as séries de dados de temperatura do ar (média, máxima e mínima), umidade relativa do ar e precipitação pluviométrica apresentaram desvios positivos e negativos em relação à sua média histórica, apresentando tendências não significativas de aumento ou diminuição em relação ao valor médio. Os resultados observados para o período (1945 a 2005) corroboram com os estudos de simulação climática sobre possíveis impactos do desmatamento no

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