Analisis Dinamik Model Transmisi COVID-19 dengan Melibatkan Intervensi Karantina

Resmawan, Resmawan; Nuha, Agusyarif Rezka; Yahya, Lailany

doi:10.34312/jjom.v3i1.8699

Cited by 7 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Seperti Khan dan Atangana [5] yang merancang model matematika dengan mengeksplorasi dinamika infeksi COVID-19 menggunakan operator turunan orde-fraksional ABC. Resmawan dkk [6] membahas model transisi COVID-19 dengan melibatkan intervensi karantika. Annas dkk [7] menggunakan model SEIR untuk mempelajari penyebaran COVID-19 di Indonesia.…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

“…Pada penelitian ini, diperkenalkan model baru yang mengacu pada model [6] dengan melakukan modifikasi yaitu dengan menggabungkan kelas populasi manusia yang terinfeksi tanpa gejala dan populasi manusia yang dikarantina kedalam kelas populasi manusia yang terpapar, hal ini dimaksudkan sesuai dengan keadaan dunia nyata bahwa tidak diberlakukannya lagi karantina. Modifikasi lainnya yaitu berupa penambahan kelas populasi vaksin yang mewakili individu yang telah divaksinasi.…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

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Analisis Dinamik Model Penyebaran COVID-19 dengan Vaksinasi

Resmawan

Yahya

Pakaya

et al. 2022

Jambura J. Biomath.

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Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a new type of virus from a large family of viruses transmitted between humans and animals (zoonotically transmitted) that was first discovered in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China in late 2019 which is still widespread and threat throughout the world including Indonesia. This article discussed about the mathematical model of the spread of COVID-19 with vaccinations. In this case, the human population is divided into 5 classes, namely the suspected, vaccine, exposed, infected and recovered classes. The constructed model forms an SVEIR model that has two equilibrium points, namely disease-free and endemic equilibrium points. Stability analysis shows that the equilibrium point is stable local and global asymptotic if R0 1 and unstable if R0 1. Then a sensitivity analysis was carried out to determine the parameters that greatly affect the model as well as furthermore, numerical simulations are given to describe the behavior of the model that has been obtained based on the analysis of the sensitivity of basic reproductive numbers, obtained several parameters that affect the spread of COVID-19. Numerical simulation results show that vaccination can suppress the addition of infected populations and depend on the level of effectiveness of vaccination.

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Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Analisis Dinamik Model Penyebaran COVID-19 dengan Vaksinasi

Resmawan

Yahya

Pakaya

et al. 2022

Jambura J. Biomath.

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“…Analysis of the COVID-19 mathematical model was carried out by Annas et al [7] Resmawan et al [8] and Zeb et al [9] with research showing that isolating infected individuals can reduce the risk of spreading COVID-19. A study by Darti et al [10] proposed a COVID-19 epidemic model with quarantine classes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

SEIQR Model Sensitivity and Bifurcation Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Dynamics with International in-out Mobility Control in Indonesia

Sinaga,

Kartika,

Farhana

2024

Jambura J. Math

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This study aims to analyze the SEIQR model for the SARS-CoV-2 dynamic by considering in-out mobility. The model construction is based on the COVID-19 response strategy implemented by the Indonesian government, then analyzing the model by determining the equilibrium point and basic reproduction number, analyzing model stability, parameter sensitivity, and bifurcation. The results show that the model has stable disease-free and disease-endemic critical points when the parameter inequality conditions based on the Routh-Hurwitz criteria are satisfied. Numerical simulations show that the system takes a long time to reach equilibrium. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number shows that the most sensitive parameters are natural birth and death rate susceptible, contact rate of susceptible individuals with infected individuals from local and international subjects, and rate of exposed individuals who have infected. Thus, efforts to handle COVID-19 in Indonesia can be improved by focusing on controlling international in-out mobility, so that the number of exposed individuals who have been infected can be reduced. Moreover, the bifurcation analysis shows that the system undergoes forward or backward bifurcation under disease-free conditions if certain coefficient values are satisfied based on the Castillo-Chavez and Song conditions.

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“…Many researchers use mathematical modeling to study the spread of infectious diseases. [9][10][11][12][13][14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring of Homotopy Perturbation Method (HPM) for Solving Spread of COVID-19

Nasution,

Mulyono,

Surbakti

et al. 2023

Jambura J. Biomath.

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This article discusses the solution to the non-linear differential equation system for the spread of COVID19 with SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered) model using the Homotopy Perturbation Method. Specifically, this article examines the impact of moving the recovered subpopulation back to the susceptible subpopulation on the spread of COVID-19 in the city of Medan. The data used is real data for the city of Medan in 2021. The results of constructing a model for the spread of COVID-19 were analyzed to obtain a disease-free critical point. By using the Next Generation Matrix method, the Basic Reproduction number R0 = 4.61 is obtained, this indicates that COVID-19 is still possible to spread in Medan City. Simulations using the Homotopy Perturbation Method numerical approach and the results compared with the Runge Kutte Order 4 method show results that accurately describe the dynamics of the spread of COVID-19 in Medan City. The very small error indicates that the Homotopy Perturbation Method is very suitable for use in solving non-linear differential equation systems, especially in the SEIRS model of the spread of COVID-19. The simulation results show that the impact of the movement of recovered sub-populations to susceptible sub-populations results in accelerated transmission of COVID-19. The greater the number of movements higher the rate of spread of COVID-19.

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Analisis Dinamik Model Transmisi COVID-19 dengan Melibatkan Intervensi Karantina

Cited by 7 publications

References 15 publications

Analisis Dinamik Model Penyebaran COVID-19 dengan Vaksinasi

Analisis Dinamik Model Penyebaran COVID-19 dengan Vaksinasi

SEIQR Model Sensitivity and Bifurcation Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Dynamics with International in-out Mobility Control in Indonesia

Exploring of Homotopy Perturbation Method (HPM) for Solving Spread of COVID-19

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