Análisis espacial del riesgo de establecimiento de Lymantria dispar en bosques nativos de Sudamérica

Abstract

SUMMARYLymantria dispar is a quarantine pest absent in South America. A regional phytosanitary surveillance plan was developed to control this pest due to its high risk of introduction through global commerce. The objective of this study was to estimate the potential distribution ranges of L. dispar in a new geographical area, using a deductive approach to prioritize areas for preventive monitoring. In South America, forest susceptibility was evaluated under different climate scenarios. In Argentina a phenology model was simulated. According to historical climatic conditions in South America, the areas with higher risk of establishment are the Andean forests from northern Argentina to Venezuela, the Brazilian Atlantic forest, littoral coastal areas of Uruguay and Argentina and the Mediterranean area of central and southern Chile. Based on estimations of IPCC, the effects of climate change would cause a reduction of the susceptible area to L. dispar invasion in future decades. Although there were statistically significant differences among the areas with high risk of invasion, estimated by the two methodological approaches, susceptible areas for preventive monitoring were identified.Key words: invasive species, climate change, phytosanitary risk. RESUMENLymantria dispar es una plaga cuarentenaria ausente de Sudamérica, para la que se ha elaborado un plan de vigilancia fitosanitaria regional, debido su elevado riesgo de introducción involuntaria a través del comercio. El objetivo de este trabajo fue estimar la distribución geográfica potencial de L. dispar en una nueva área utilizando un enfoque deductivo, a fin de priorizar ambientes en riesgo para su monitoreo preventivo. En Sudamérica se evaluó la susceptibilidad de la cobertura boscosa ante diferentes escenarios climáticos. A escala local, en Argentina, se simuló la fenología potencial de la especie. A base de las condiciones climáticas históricas de Sudamérica, L. dispar podría establecerse en los bosques andinos desde el norte de Argentina, hasta Venezuela, la mata atlántica brasileña, áreas costeras litorales de Uruguay y Argentina y el área mediterránea del centro y sur de Chile. Los efectos del cambio climático estimados por el IPCC, provocarían una disminución de este área susceptible en las próximas décadas. Aunque existieron diferencias significativas en la superficie clasificada como de mayor riesgo fitosanitario en las dos escalas de estudio (subcontinental vs. regional), se lograron identificar las principales áreas susceptibles para el monitoreo preventivo de L. dispar.Palabras clave: especie invasora, cambio climático, riesgo fitosanitario.

Statistical evaluation of the flight activity of the European grapevine moth (Lobesia botrana Den. & Schiff.) in the Northeastern Black Sea Region (Russia)

“…Currently, it has occupied all the countries of the Mediterranean, the countries of the Near and Middle East, the countries of Central Asia (https://gd.eppo.int/taxon/POLYBO/distribution) [1]. The pest spread along the eastern coast of Africa to Kenya [2,3], occupied a new habitat for itself in South America -the wine-growing regions of Chile and Argentina [4]. Also from 2009 to 2014, it was found in various regions of California in North America [5], but thanks to the work of the local quarantine service, the invader was successfully destroyed [6].…”