Analisis Exchange Market Pressure di Indonesia Periode Setelah Krisis Moneter

Abstract

Indonesia is one of the countries that handed over its currency to the exchange market, so the rupiah has fluctuated. The purpose of this study is to test and analyze the exchange market pressure in Indonesia period after the monetary crisis. The method used is ARDL with the period of quarter 1 of 2002 up to quarter 4 of 2017. The estimation result shows that USA economic growth, USA PUAB, M2 growth, and domestic credit have a significant effect on EMP in the long term, while EMP lag 1, USA economic growth lag 3, USA PUAB, Indonesian M2 growth, and Indonesian M2 growth lag 2 have a significant effect, and domestic credit to EMP in the short term.

The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables and the Covid-19 Pandemic on National Income in Indonesia

“…Inflation that continuously occurs in the real economy causes a decrease in national income because it can reduce aggregate demand. It is in line with research conducted by [23]; [24]; [25]; and [13]; which stated that a continuous increase in inflation was able to reduce national income due to pressure from prices that generally increased in the long term.…”

“…Finally, it reduces national income in the long term. It is in line with research conducted by [23]; and [25]; that interest rates affect people's daily lives and have a major impact on economic conditions.…”

“…It is in line with the rising money supply in the economy, which can be used for public consumption or production in the real sector. An increase in money in society will encourage domestic demand and increase national income [25]. In the long term, money will circulate widely to producers and consumers to improve the economy [12].…”

“…Furthermore, the pandemic's impact on multi-sectors can significantly reduce national income. As a result, the pandemic slows the economy and triggers a sharp decline in economic growth [25].…”