Analisis Peramalan Harga Daging Ayam Pedaging Di Kota Ambon Dan Risiko Yang Ditimbulkan Terhadap Daya Beli Masyarakat

Abstract

Harga daging ayam pedaging di Kota Ambon akhir-akhir ini terus meningkat disebabkan oleh keterbatasan persediaan (supply) dan tarikan permintaan yang kuat. Kenaikan harga menyebabkan daya beli masyarakat menurun dan mengakibatkan berbagai risiko harus dihadapi masyarakat konsumen. Diperlukan peramalan harga ke depan untuk mengetahui seberapa besar risiko penurunan daya beli konsumen. Penelitian ini bertujuan meramalkan trend kenaikan harga daging ayam di Kota Ambon dalam setahun ke depan dan menganalisis risiko kenaikan harga tersebut terhadap penurunan daya beli masyarakat. Peramalan menggunakan metode linear trend, diawali analisis model regresi dan dilanjutkan dengan peramalan harga daging ayam pedaging untuk periode 1 tahun mendatang (Oktober 2022 hingga September 2023). Data untuk analisis bersumber dari Pusat Informasi Harga Pangan Strategis Nasional (PIHPS NASIONAL). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan rata-rata harga daging ayam pedaging di Kota Ambon selama 21 periode sebelum peramalan sebesar Rp. 37.476,19 per kg atau bertumbuh 0,94%. Rata-rata harga per kg pada periode peramalan Oktober 2022 hingga September 2023 sebesar Rp. 41.976,18 atau bertumbuh 0,65%. Kenaikan harga rata-rata sebelum peramalan dengan sesudah peramalan sebesar 12,01% atau harga meningkat Rp.4.500,- per kg. Kenaikan harga ini mengindikasikan penurunan daya beli konsumen rata-rata 12,01% atau setara dengan penurunan jumlah konsumsi dari 1 kg atau 1000 gr menjadi tersisa 0,88 kg atau 880 gr. Penurunan daya beli dan jumlah konsumsi daging ayam pedaging dikategorikan sebagai angka risiko cukup besar. Mitigasi dilakukan dengan mendorong pengembangan produksi daging ayam pedaging di tingkat produsen lokal meskipun efeknya mengurangi risiko cukup lambat. 
 
 ABSTRACT
 The price of broiler meat in Ambon City has recently continued to increase due to limited supply and strong demand pull. The increase in prices causes people's purchasing power to decrease and results in various risks that the consumer community must face. Future price forecasting is needed to find out how big the risk of a decline in consumer purchasing power is. This study aims to predict the rising trend of chicken meat prices in Ambon City in the next year and to analyze the risk of rising prices on the decline in people's purchasing power. Forecasting uses the linear trend method, starting with regression model analysis and following by forecasting the price of broiler meat for the next 1 year period (October 2022 to September 2023). Data for analysis is sourced from the National Strategic Food Price Information Center (PIHPS NASIONAL). The results showed that the average price of broiler meat in Ambon City for 21 periods before forecasting was Rp. 37,476.19 per kg or grew 0.94%. The average price per kg in the forecasting period from October 2022 to September 2023 is Rp. 41,976.18 or a growth of 0.65%. The increase in the average price before the forecast and after the forecast is 12.01% or the price increases by Rp. 4,500,- per kg. This price increase indicates a decrease in consumer purchasing power by an average of 12.01% or equivalent to a decrease in the amount of consumption from 1 kg or 1000 gr to the remaining 0.88 kg or 880 gr. The decrease in purchasing power and the amount of consumption of broiler meat is categorized as a significant risk figure. Mitigation is carried out by encouraging the development of broiler meat production at the local producer level although the effect of reducing risk is quite slow.