Analisis Uji Akurasi Model Grover, Springate, Dan Zmijewski Dalam Memprediksi Kebangkrutan Perusahaan Delisted Di Bei

Abstract

This study aimed at analyzing how the results of the Grover, Springate and Zmijewski models predict the bankruptcy of PT Citra Maharlika Nusantara Corpora Tbk for the period of June 2013 - September 2016. This study also aimed at measuring the accuracy of the bankruptcy prediction model and determined which predictive model of the three models was the most accurate. From the data analysis, it was found that Springate model was the most accurate prediction model with 100% accuracy rate to predict the bankruptcy of PT Citra Maharlika Nusantara Corpora Tbk compared to the Grover model with an accuracy rate of 71.48% and Zmijewski model with the lowest accuracy rate of 21.48%. The limitations of this study was this study only carried out in one company, thus in the future it is expected that the model will be tested in more than one company and type of business sector.Keywords: Financial Distress, Grover, Springate, Zmijewski ModelsPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis bagaimana hasil dari model Grover, Springate dan Zmijewski dalam memprediksi kebangkrutan PT Citra Maharlika Nusantara Corpora Tbk periode Juni 2013 – September 2016 serta mengukur tingkat akurasi model prediksi kebangkrutan tersebut dan menentukan model prediksi manakah diantara ketiga model tersebut yang paling akurat. Model Springate menjadi model prediksi paling akurat dengan tingkat akurasi 100% untuk memprediksi kebangkrutan PT Citra Maharlika Nusantara Corpora Tbk dibandingakan dengan model Grover dengan tingkat akurasi 71,48% dan model Zmijewski dengan tingkat akurasi paling rendah sebesar 21,48%.Keterbatasan penelitian ini terletak pada pengujian model pada satu perusahaan di satu unit sektor usaha, kedepan bisa dilakukan pengujian pada berbagai jenis sektor usaha.Kata kunci: Financial Distress, Model Grover, Springate, Zmijewski

Dampak Financial Distress dan Return Saham di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2014-2019

“…Hanifah (2019) menyatakan bahwa financial distress merupakan situasi yang tidak diinginkan oleh perusahaan manapun, karena itu perlu diketahui penyebab terjadinya financial distress pada suatu perusahaan sehingga manajemen dapat melihat segmen mana yang perlu diperbaiki agar perusahaan dapat bertahan. Financial distress merupakan salah satu penyebab terjadinya kebangkrutan dalam hal keuangan emiten sedangkan masih banyak faktor-faktor diluar keuangan yang dapat menyebabkan kebangkrutan perusahaan (Laksmana & Darmawati, 2019). PT Krakatau Steel, Tbk (KRAS) merupakan emiten publik yang bergerak dalam bidang industri baja didirikan pada tanggal 27 Oktober 1971, KRAS sudah mengalami kerugian selama 7 tahun beruntun sejak 2012.…”

Analysis Financial Distress Prediction With Model Altman Z-Score, Zmijewski, And Grover In The Sub Sector Retail Listed On The Indonesian Stock Exchange (Idx) 2014-2018 Period

“…Financial distress is the time before the company goes bankrupt [9]. Financial distress also has several types of definitions according to Brigham & Gapenski (1997) in [2] namely, economic failure, business failure, technical insolvency, insolvency bankruptcy, and legal bankruptcy. Financial difficulties are a very important indicator for stakeholders such as investors, government, auditors, and company management.…”

“…Based on the analysis of the financial statements of companies listed in the retail sub-sector on the IDX, 9 companies experienced a decrease in negative net income or a decline in financial conditions in their operations for more than one year, this is following the characteristics of financial distress stated by Hofer (1980), Whitaker (1999), and Listyarini, et al (2016) in [1]. Another indicator if a company experiences financial distress [2] is the company experiencing delisted from the capital market. Delisted is the delisting of the issuer's shares from the stock exchange, where the write-off is carried out based on the company's assessment.…”

“…The earlier the company knows the sign, the better it is for management because management can make improvements directly [3]. Financial distress prediction research has often been conducted in Indonesia, including research conducted by [1], [2], [4], [5], [6], and [7]. Based on the description above, the problem in this study is "How financial distress prediction in the retail sub-sector listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) for the 2014-2018 period uses the Altman Z-Score, Zmijewski, and Grover models" and "Which prediction model is most accurate in predicting financial distress in the retail sub-sector listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) for the 2014-2018 period".…”

Analisis Ketepatan Metode Springate Dan Fulmer Dalam Memprediksi Kebangkrutan Pada Perusahaan Subsektor Pariwisata, Restoran, Dan Hotel Di Indonesia

“…The researcher selected the Fulmer and Springate methods based on the findings of earlier studies, namely. Norita (2016), Laksmana and Ayu (2019), Putri andDesaki (2020) andIsykharma et al (2021). The Springate method and Fulmer method provide high accuracy, namely the highest in predicting bankruptcy compared to the Altman, Ohlson, Grover and Zmijewski methods.…”