Analyses of CO2 mitigation roadmap in China’s power industry: Using a Backcasting Model

Wen, Zongguo; Di, Jinghan; Yu, Xuewei; Zhang, Xuan

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.08.026

Cited by 11 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…This indicates that the result has certain robustness that the CET contributes to improving the technology innovation levels of enterprises in power industry. As we know, power industry is an industry with the largest carbon emissions in China (Wen, Di, Yu, & Zhang, ). According to China Electric Power Yearbook 2018, in 2017, the installed generating capacity reached 1,770 GW, of which 60% was thermal power.…”

Section: Results and Analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does China's carbon emissions trading policy improve the technology innovation of relevant enterprises?

2019

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China's carbon emissions trading (CET) policy aims to force relevant enterprises to implement low‐carbon technology innovation and address environmental challenges through marketization means. However, how China's CET policy may affect enterprise technology innovation and whether this effect may differ in industries remain to be further investigated. Therefore, based on the panel data of listed enterprises covered by the CET policy in China during 2009–2017, this paper employs the difference‐in‐difference (DID) and DID‐based propensity score matching models to evaluate the effect of CET on technology innovation. The empirical results indicate that the effect of China's CET on the technology innovation of related enterprises is generally not significant during the sample period, but this effect presents evident industrial heterogeneity. Specifically, among the eight CET‐covered industries, the CET policy helps to improve technology innovation for power and aviation enterprises but not in the other six industries (i.e., steel, chemical, building material, petrochemical, nonferrous metals, and paper), which implies that China's CET policy still has great potential for promoting the technology innovation of related enterprises. In addition, the central findings remain robust when the system generalized method of moment and DID‐based coarsened exact matching models are applied to consider the influence of omitted variables, unobservable confounders, and different matching methods.

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Section: Results and Analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does China's carbon emissions trading policy improve the technology innovation of relevant enterprises?

2019

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“…The Robinson approach is the most famous method and can be applied in various scenarios. It can be used in crafting policy analysis in transport infrastructure projects [51][52][53][54], low-carbon electricity generation, CO 2 mitigation [55][56][57][58][59], and creating system design for the transition to renewable energy [60][61][62][63][64].…”

Section: Backcasting Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…backcasting approaches that were used in various literary sources: (1) the R proach; (2) The Natural Step approach (TNS); (3) the Sustainable Technolo ment approach (STD); (4) Quist approach; and (5) Sushouse approach [48-50 son approach is the most famous method and can be applied in various sce be used in crafting policy analysis in transport infrastructure projects [51-54 electricity generation, CO2 mitigation [55][56][57][58][59], and creating system design f tion to renewable energy [60][61][62][63][64].…”

Section: Scenario Typologymentioning

confidence: 99%

A Backcasting Analysis toward a 100% Renewable Energy Transition by 2040 for Off-Grid Islands

et al. 2022

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The rapid increase in energy consumption results from population growth and technological advancement, while economic growth also relies heavily on the availability of energy. As fossil fuels become scarcer and greenhouse gas emissions increase, renewable energy sources are regarded as practical solutions to meet increasing energy demands. This study aims to develop a sustainable energy transition pathway for off-grid island communities in the Philippines. It adopts the concept of backcasting analysis, focusing on the demand and supply side of the energy transition. The transition considers three milestones: business as usual (BAU), minimal transition scenario (MTS), and absolute transition scenario (ATS). The techno-enviro-economic analysis is performed for each milestone to determine the optimal energy resource mix while addressing the three dimensions of the Energy Trilemma: energy security, energy equity, and environmental sustainability. The approach is implemented in three off-grid island municipalities in Palawan, Philippines: Araceli, Balabac, and Cuyo. The results suggest that the optimal electrification configuration for each island at the MTS is a hybrid system consisting of a diesel generator and solar photovoltaics with batteries, while at the ATS, it is a hybrid system of solar photovoltaics and wind with batteries. In addition, greenhouse gas emissions are reduced by 79.7% in Araceli, 78.7% in Balabac, and 41.2% in Cuyo from the BAU scenario to MTS. The actors involved in said transition are identified. A transitional pathway can be seen as a strategic plan to achieve the desired goal: to have a sustainable energy transition.

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“…A clear description of the differences between fore-and back-casting is given by Banister and Hickman (2013). The backcasting method has been used for creating scenarios of energy use and GHG emissions for the 2 °C global temperature target (Krewitt et al, 2007), resilience in energy systems (Kishita et al, 2017), CO 2 emissions from road transport (Hickman et al, 2010), technological choices for energy systems (Beugin and Jaccard, 2012), low carbon pathways (Nagy and Körmendi, 2012;Robertson, 2016), and roadmapping in the power industry (Wen et al, 2017).…”

Section: Scenario and The Forecasting Of Gdp Growthmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling socio-economic and energy data to generate business-as-usual scenarios for carbon emissions

Roberts¹,

Axon

Goddard³

et al. 2019

Journal of Cleaner Production

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The UK Government is legally committed to achieving an 80% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions compared with 1990 by 2050. The use of scenarios is wide ranging to inform policy development and forming a businessas-usual scenario helps to understand possible effects of different policy interventions. However, the term business-as-usual is frequently misused. We show how econo-physical business-as-usual scenarios can be developed by examining the historical behaviour of coefficients which manifest the relationship between components of an economy. We endogenise economic growth by mimicking national level policies that focus on a target level of unemployment. Our case-study demonstrates the 'trendability' of coefficients which for one example coefficient is replicated for Australia, Colombia, Taiwan and the USA. We manifest a gross domestic product growth of 2% falling to 1% which contrasts with an exogenous growth of 2.3% of a comparator business-as-usual scenario. We suggest that it may be possible to achieve a greater reduction in the business-asusual carbon dioxide emissions in the UK fifth carbon budget than currently projected.

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Analyses of CO2 mitigation roadmap in China’s power industry: Using a Backcasting Model

Cited by 11 publications

References 38 publications

Does China's carbon emissions trading policy improve the technology innovation of relevant enterprises?

Does China's carbon emissions trading policy improve the technology innovation of relevant enterprises?

A Backcasting Analysis toward a 100% Renewable Energy Transition by 2040 for Off-Grid Islands

Modelling socio-economic and energy data to generate business-as-usual scenarios for carbon emissions

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