Analysing the combined health, social and economic impacts of the corovanvirus pandemic using agent-based social simulation

Dignum, Frank; Dignum, Virginia; Davidsson, Paul; Ghorbani, Amineh; Hurk, Mijke van der; Jensen, Maarten; Kammler, Christian; Lorig, Fabian; Ludescher, Luis Gustavo; Melchior, Alexander; Mellema, René; Pastrav, Cezara; Vanhée, Loïs; Verhagen, Harko

doi:10.48550/arxiv.2004.12809

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…We formulate our agent decision-making model following the needs-based model proposed by Dignum et al This model was originally implemented to examine the impact and efficacy of non-medical interventions (e.g. mask mandates, lockdowns) during the Covid-19 pandemic [21,22]. We adapt their model to the socio-economic problem (poverty) we are examining and adhere to the original spirit of the model formulation.…”

Section: The Agent Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

A computational model of Ostrom's Institutional Analysis and Development framework

Montes

Osman

Sierra

2022

Artificial Intelligence

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Section: The Agent Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

A computational model of Ostrom's Institutional Analysis and Development framework

Montes

Osman

Sierra

2022

Artificial Intelligence

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“…For instance, Inoue and Todo [41] quantified that a possible one month lockdown in Tokyo would lead to a total production loss of 5.3% in Japanese annual gross domestic product (GDP). Dignum et al [42] proposed a tool to analyze the health, social, and economic impacts of the pandemic when the government implements a number of interventions, such as closing schools, requiring that employees work at home, and providing subsidy for the population.…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-ABS: An Agent-Based Model of COVID-19 Epidemic to Simulate Health and Economic Effects of Social Distancing Interventions

Silva,

Batista,

Lima

et al. 2020

Preprint

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The COVID-19 pandemic due to the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus have directly impacted the public health and economy. To overcome this problem, the countries have adopted different policies for controlling the spread of the virus. This paper proposes the COVID-ABS, a new SEIR agent-based model that aims to simulate the pandemic dynamics using a society of agents emulating people, business and government. Seven different scenarios varying epidemiological and economical effects of social distance interventions were performed, which are: (1) do nothing, (2) lockdown, (3) conditional lockdown, (4) vertical isolation, (5) partial isolation, (6) use of face masks, and (7) use of face masks together with 50% of adhesion to social isolation. In the impossibility of implementing scenarios with lockdown which present the lowest number of deaths and highest impact on the economy, scenarios combining the use of face masks and partial isolation can be the more realistic for implementation in terms of social cooperation. The model can be easily extended to new societies by varying the parameters as well as allows the creating of a multitude of other scenarios.

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“…Inoue and Todo [18] calculated that a possible one-month lockdown in Tokyo would result in a total production loss of 5.3% of Japan's annual gross domestic product (GDP). Dignum et al [19] proposed a tool to analyze the health, social and economic impacts of a pandemic when the government implements a range of interventions such as closing schools, requiring employees to work from home, and providing subsidies to the public. Silva PCL et al [20] showed that if it is impossible to introduce a full lockdown, the best solution is the "use of face masks and 50% of social isolation" scenario.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Epidemiological and Economic Impact of COVID‑19 in Kazakhstan. Agent-Based Modelling

Koichubekov,

Korshukov,

Takuadina

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Background. We created agent-based model for short- and longterm forecasting of COVID-19 and for evaluation how the actions of the regulator affected the human and material resources of the healthcare system. Methods. The model was implemented in the AnyLogic software. It includes two state charts – social network and disease transmission. The COVID-19 Essential Supplies Forecasting Tool (COVID-ESFT, version 2.0) was used to determine healthcare resources needed. Results. Satisfactory results were obtained with long-term (up to 50 days) forecasting in the case of a monotonous change in total cases curve. However, if periods of relative stability are accompanied by sudden outbreaks, relatively satisfactory results were obtained with short-term forecasting, up to 10 days. Simulation of various scenarios showed that the most important place for the spread of infection are families. Wherein the maximum number of cases of COVID-19 is observed in the age group of 26-59 years. Due to a set of measures taken by government agencies, the number of cases in Karaganda city was 3.2 times less than was predicted in “no intervention” scenario. Economic effect is estimated at 40 %. Conclusion. Performed model is an attempt to consider as much as possible the peculiarities of the socio-demographic situation in the country. In the future, we will be prepared to some extent for challenges like those we have experienced in the past three years.

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Analysing the combined health, social and economic impacts of the corovanvirus pandemic using agent-based social simulation

Cited by 4 publications

References 0 publications

A computational model of Ostrom's Institutional Analysis and Development framework

A computational model of Ostrom's Institutional Analysis and Development framework

COVID-ABS: An Agent-Based Model of COVID-19 Epidemic to Simulate Health and Economic Effects of Social Distancing Interventions

The Epidemiological and Economic Impact of COVID‑19 in Kazakhstan. Agent-Based Modelling

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