Analysing vote-choice in a multinational state: national identity and territorial differentiation in the 2016 Brexit vote

Henderson, Ailsa; Poole, Ed Gareth; Jones, Richard Wyn; Wincott, Daniel; Larner, Jac; Jeffery, Charlie

doi:10.1080/00343404.2020.1813883

Cited by 30 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…The fact that sub‐state nationalist parties apparently address more than one issue almost inevitably implies that they cannot reach full congruence with public opinion on their single core issue of centre–periphery relations. With this conclusion, we are fully in line with earlier research results on Scotland (Henderson et al, 2021).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

“…Recent research indeed suggests that there might not be a perfect correlation between the scores of sub‐state nationalist parties and public opinion with regard to their core issues. Studies show that the rise of nationalist parties does not automatically imply an increased support for secessionism (Henderson et al, 2021; Medeiros et al, 2022).…”

Section: The Multidimensional Appeal Of Sub‐state Nationalist Partiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Nationalist identities, preferences and voting for sub‐state nationalist parties in the Flemish region of Belgium

Hooghe

Stiers

2022

Nations and Nationalism

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There is an ongoing academic debate about the question whether sub-state nationalist parties should be considered as niche parties, focusing almost exclusively on their core issue of centre-periphery relations, or whether their electoral appeal can be considered as multidimensional. In that case, these other dimensions can vary with regard to the specific ideological position, historical circumstances and strategic considerations. In this article, we address this theoretical question by relying on the case study of the substate nationalist parties in the Flemish region of Belgium, where they jointly obtained 44% of the vote in the most recent elections. Comparing election surveys from 2009, 2014 and 2019 suggests that the electoral appeal of these parties rests on a mixture of nationalist issues, right-wing economic policies and a restrictive attitude towards immigration. These results suggest that sub-state nationalist parties are not purely niche parties, but should be seen as multiple issue parties, and this broader electoral appeal can explain the discrepancy between electoral results and public opinion on the core issues of these parties.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: The Multidimensional Appeal Of Sub‐state Nationalist Partiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nationalist identities, preferences and voting for sub‐state nationalist parties in the Flemish region of Belgium

Hooghe

Stiers

2022

Nations and Nationalism

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“…But the decision to leave the EU on 23 June 2016 would further shape Scottish politics in significant ways. Brexit exposed territorial differentiation in preferences on EU membershipwith 62% of Scottish citizens opting for Remain (McHarg and Mitchell 2017, 513) -which the referendum was not designed to take into account (Henderson et al 2021(Henderson et al , 1502, producing a mismatch between what Scottish citizens had voted for and what the UK government claimed it had a mandate to deliver (Curtice 2020, 225;McEwen 2018, 66). Scottish designs on Brexit, including continued membership of the Single Market and the Customs Union (Scottish Government 2016), were compatible with May's refusal to countenance territorial differentiation in the final agreement (McEwen 2021(McEwen , 1542(McEwen -1543Wincott et al 2021Wincott et al , 1533.…”

Section: Brexit and The Devolved Settlementmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most of the existing scholarship has focused on the detrimental effect Brexit has had on the devolved administrations (McEwen 2018, 66;McHarg and Mitchell 2017, 518;Salamone 2020, 17) or on the distinctions between Brexit and independence, with talk of 'irreconcilable sovereignties' (McEwen 2022), 'discordant goals' (Kenny and Sheldon 2021, 966), divergent territorial preferences (Daniels and Kuo 2021;Henderson et al 2021) and 'rival economic nationalisms' (Rioux 2020). The debate within the policy community has done little to rectify this gap, perhaps unsurprisingly, given the political difficulties of equating Brexit -a helpful recruiting tool for the independence cause -with Scottish nationalism.…”

Section: Independence As Brexit? the Politics Of Analogiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Negotiating secession: Brexit lessons for Scottish independence

Martill

2022

Br Polit

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Brexit has contributed to increased discussion of a second independence referendum in Scotland, so-called IndyRef2. A successful Yes vote would require negotiations between Scotland and the rest of the UK to settle distributional questions and coordinate on cross-border policies, but there are few precedents for this and little scholarly discussion as a result. This article argues that the lessons from Brexit can help us understand what negotiating secession might look like, insofar as British withdrawal from the European Union illustrates the specific dynamics associated with exiting a pluri-national and institutionally dense union under conditions of asymmetric interdependence. Drawing on recent research on the politics of exit, this article suggests the period following a successful independence referendum will be characterised by efforts to reinterpret the referendum mandate, political change within and between parties and institutions, altered preferences in London, and a highly asymmetric bargaining environment. Understanding the lessons of Brexit can aid our understanding of the dynamics of independence and help policymakers prepare in advance for the eventuality of a Yes vote.

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“…In Scotland, by contrast, identity was related to Brexit preferences, but in a less divisive way. Henderson et al found strong Scottish identity, relative to British identity, to be a predictor of the Remain vote in Scotland, but with far less effect than the much stronger explanatory power of English identity among Leavers in England (Henderson et al, 2020). The prevalence of Scottish identity across the political spectrum has traditionally made it a relatively weak predictor of vote choice (McCrone, 2017).…”

Section: Exit From Brexit: Exit Strategies After the Eu Referendummentioning

confidence: 99%

Brexit and the union: Territorial voice, exit and re-entry strategies in Scotland and Northern Ireland after EU exit

McEwen

Murphy

2021

International Political Science Review

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This article examines the effects of Brexit on the internal boundaries and territorial future of the United Kingdom (UK). Divergent Brexit preferences, coupled with the process of negotiating and preparing for Brexit, have raised new questions about the ability of the UK to remain united. Focusing upon Scotland and Northern Ireland, where territorial challenges are most acute, the article draws upon and adapts Hirschman’s voice, exit and loyalty framework to examine the strategic choices and options faced by institutional actors in each case when determining constitutional and political options in response to Brexit. The article contends that, while credible exit threats were used to bolster voice in the Brexit negotiations, the Brexit vote and subsequent process have exposed the limitations of territorial voice, and unleashed new exit dynamics. We enhance the framework by exploring the concept of re-entry, exploring the contrasting paths these territories would face to re-enter the European Union (EU).

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Analysing vote-choice in a multinational state: national identity and territorial differentiation in the 2016 Brexit vote

Cited by 30 publications

References 62 publications

Nationalist identities, preferences and voting for sub‐state nationalist parties in the Flemish region of Belgium

Nationalist identities, preferences and voting for sub‐state nationalist parties in the Flemish region of Belgium

Negotiating secession: Brexit lessons for Scottish independence

Brexit and the union: Territorial voice, exit and re-entry strategies in Scotland and Northern Ireland after EU exit

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