Analysis and diagnostics of business risks of the company: forecasting and control of probability of bankruptcy

Abstract

The article discusses the author’s methodology and analytical tools for assessing business risks and forecasting the business continuity (probability of bankruptcy) of companies with the possibility of its implementation in a computer environment. The proposed methodology consists of four stages: assessment of financial results; solvency assessment; identification, calculation and assessment of financial risks of the company's business continuity; forecasting changes in the level of risk of business continuity using the developed calculator for calculating risk factors indicators. This technique is recommended for use in audit and consulting activities to assess the continuity of the audited companies, to justify the choice of borrowing companies, bidders and traders, as well as in internal audit systems, internal control, financial control of business processes.