Analysis and evaluation of mortality losses of the 2001 African swine fever outbreak, Ibadan, Nigeria

Babalobi, Olutayo Olajide; Olugasa, Babasola; Oluwayelu, Daniel Oladimeji; Ijagbone, I.F; Ayoade, G. O.; Agbede, S. A.

doi:10.1007/s11250-007-9038-9

Cited by 52 publications

(65 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…By improving the feeding situation, disease incidences usually decrease. However, the devastation potential of highly lethal and economically significant diseases, such as ASF (Babalobi et al 2007), Newcastle or Avian Flu, is a challenge to be faced by any investment in livestock development especially for the poor (Perry et al 2002). …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Challenges and opportunities for smallholder livestock production in post-conflict South Kivu, eastern DR Congo

Maass

Musale²,

Chiuri³

et al. 2012

Trop Anim Health Prod

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A survey on smallholder livestock production with emphasis on monogastric animals was conducted in 20 villages of seven so-called ‘groupements’ of South Kivu province in DR Congo, situated along a north to south-west axis with the town of Bukavu in the center. This land adjacent to Lake Kivu is located at elevations ranging around 900–1900 m asl, experiencing tropical highland climate. A diagnostic survey helped to rapidly obtain in-depth knowledge of constraints and opportunities in this environment. Correspondence analysis and multiple regression analysis were used to investigate the association of production constraints with particular livestock species and to understand the factors that govern the number of livestock that people owned (converted to tropical livestock units [TLU]), respectively. Responses of 112 informants demonstrated that livestock is an integral part of the region’s mixed farming systems. Low livestock numbers per household at present reflect the poverty as a consequence of recent violent conflicts. Currently, farmers focus on small livestock, like poultry, swine, cavies (i.e., Guinea pigs) and rabbits. Families keep livestock to accumulate household reserves that are strongly invested in children’s education. Major issues of animal husbandry were related to animal diseases and lack of feed resources, particularly in the dry season. Lack of feed or forages were unrelated to a particular livestock species. Livestock holdings depended on animal diversity, location, land size available and respondents’ education level. The potential introduction of improved forages is challenged by their dry-season tolerance, compatibility with cropping on small farms; and people’s readiness to cultivate forages.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Challenges and opportunities for smallholder livestock production in post-conflict South Kivu, eastern DR Congo

Maass

Musale²,

Chiuri³

et al. 2012

Trop Anim Health Prod

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Infected pigs can shed ASFV for several weeks, hence pig movement between farms, to markets and to slaughter is likely to be a major route by which the virus spreads within domestic pig populations [1], although there have been relatively few studies to quantify the importance of these factors in Africa [6,8,36]. A higher density of road networks was found to increase ASF risk in Russia [32], further highlighting the probable importance of trade on disease transmission as part of the domestic cycle.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Such ‘sylvatic’ cycles may allow the disease to persist in pig populations, even in areas with low pig population density. In parts of West Africa, on the other hand, sylvatic cycles have been infrequently described and endemicity is more likely to be the result of sustained virus transmission within high density and highly connected pig populations [2,6-8]. Factors contributing to the transmission of ASF in these ‘domestic’ pig cycles may include the use of free-ranging husbandry methods, the movement of infected pigs between farms and to markets, and the feeding of contaminated domestic waste to pigs [1].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial multi-criteria decision analysis to predict suitability for African swine fever endemicity in Africa

et al. 2014

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BackgroundAfrican swine fever (ASF) is endemic in several countries of Africa and may pose a risk to all pig producing areas on the continent. Official ASF reporting is often rare and there remains limited awareness of the continent-wide distribution of the disease.In the absence of accurate ASF outbreak data and few quantitative studies on the epidemiology of the disease in Africa, we used spatial multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to derive predictions of the continental distribution of suitability for ASF persistence in domestic pig populations as part of sylvatic or domestic transmission cycles. In order to incorporate the uncertainty in the relative importance of different criteria in defining suitability, we modelled decisions within the MCDA framework using a stochastic approach. The predictive performance of suitability estimates was assessed via a partial ROC analysis using ASF outbreak data reported to the OIE since 2005.ResultsOutputs from the spatial MCDA indicate that large areas of sub-Saharan Africa may be suitable for ASF persistence as part of either domestic or sylvatic transmission cycles. Areas with high suitability for pig to pig transmission (‘domestic cycles’) were estimated to occur throughout sub-Saharan Africa, whilst areas with high suitability for introduction from wildlife reservoirs (‘sylvatic cycles’) were found predominantly in East, Central and Southern Africa. Based on average AUC ratios from the partial ROC analysis, the predictive ability of suitability estimates for domestic cycles alone was considerably higher than suitability estimates for sylvatic cycles alone, or domestic and sylvatic cycles in combination.ConclusionsThis study provides the first standardised estimates of the distribution of suitability for ASF transmission associated with domestic and sylvatic cycles in Africa. We provide further evidence for the utility of knowledge-driven risk mapping in animal health, particularly in data-sparse environments.

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“…In 2001, an outbreak occurred in Ibadan, South west Nigeria, in which 306 pig farms and 91 % of the 31,916 affected pigs succumbed to the disease [15]. ASF has since maintained a presence in the main pig rearing areas of Nigeria and has started occurring in predictable, periodic waves in north-central Nigeria.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Molecular characterisation of African swine fever viruses from Nigeria (2003–2006) recovers multiple virus variants and reaffirms CVR epidemiological utility

et al. 2010

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Analysis and evaluation of mortality losses of the 2001 African swine fever outbreak, Ibadan, Nigeria

Cited by 52 publications

References 2 publications

Challenges and opportunities for smallholder livestock production in post-conflict South Kivu, eastern DR Congo

Challenges and opportunities for smallholder livestock production in post-conflict South Kivu, eastern DR Congo

Spatial multi-criteria decision analysis to predict suitability for African swine fever endemicity in Africa

Molecular characterisation of African swine fever viruses from Nigeria (2003–2006) recovers multiple virus variants and reaffirms CVR epidemiological utility

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