Analysis and hindcast simulations of an extreme rainfall event in the Mediterranean area: The Genoa 2011 case

Fiori, Elisabetta; Comellas, A.; Molini, L.; Rebora, Nicola; Siccardi, F.; Gochis, David; Tanelli, Simone; Parodi, Antonio

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2013.10.007

Cited by 170 publications

(150 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Operational global weather forecast centers routinely provide relatively coarse precipitation forecasts with resolutions of 16-27 km (at least for the Eastern Mediterranean region). These forecasts cannot typically resolve the necessary details of complex, intense precipitation structures that are forced by mesoscale orography, land-surface heterogeneities, and land-water contrasts (Fiori et al 2014 [24]. In the Eastern Mediterranean region, strong air-sea interaction and orographic forcing can combine to produce precipitation with very strong spatial and temporal gradients that are generally missed by coarse resolution operational models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing One-Way and Two-Way Coupled Hydrometeorological Forecasting Systems for Flood Forecasting in the Mediterranean Region

et al. 2016

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Abstract:A pair of hydro-meteorological modeling systems were calibrated and evaluated for the Ayalon basin in central Israel to assess the advantages and limitations of one-way versus two-way coupled modeling systems for flood prediction. The models used included the Hydrological Engineering Center-Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Hydro modeling system. The models were forced by observed, interpolated precipitation from rain-gauges within the basin, and with modeled precipitation from the WRF atmospheric model. Detailed calibration and evaluation was carried out for two major winter storms in January and December 2013. Then, both modeling systems were executed and evaluated in an operational mode for the full 2014/2015 rainy season. Outputs from these simulations were compared to observed measurements from the hydrometric station at the Ayalon basin outlet. Various statistical metrics were employed to quantify and analyze the results: correlation, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and the Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) efficiency coefficient. Foremost, the results presented in this study highlight the sensitivity of hydrological responses to different sources of simulated and observed precipitation data, and demonstrate improvement, although not significant, at the Hydrological response, like simulated hydrographs. With observed precipitation data both calibrated models closely simulated the observed hydrographs. The two-way coupled WRF/WRF-Hydro modeling system produced improved both the precipitation and hydrological simulations as compared to the one-way WRF simulations. Findings from this study, as well as previous studies, suggest that the use of two-way atmospheric-hydrological coupling has the potential to improve precipitation and, therefore, hydrological forecasts for early flood warning applications. However, more research needed in order to better understand the land-atmosphere coupling mechanisms driving hydrometeorological processes on a wider variety precipitation and terrestrial hydrologic systems.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing One-Way and Two-Way Coupled Hydrometeorological Forecasting Systems for Flood Forecasting in the Mediterranean Region

et al. 2016

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“…In recent years, Tuscany region and nearby areas (central Italy), have been hit by noticeably heavy rainfall events (Parodi et al, 2012;Sacchi, 2012;Avanzi et al, 2013;Rebora et al, 2013;Fiori et al, 2014;Buzzi et al, 2014;Perna et al, 2015). In particular the northwestern part of the Tuscany region is very prone to frequent and severe rainstorms, due to its geographical position and its steep orography close to the sea, making this area one of the wettest in northern and central Italy (Brunetti et al, 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical modelling of rainfall-induced shallow landsliding using static predictors and numerical weather predictions: preliminary results

Capecchi

Perna

Crisci

2015

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Our study is aimed at estimating the added value provided by Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) data for the modelling and prediction of rainfall-induced shallow landslides. We implemented a quantitative indirect statistical modelling of such phenomena by using, as input predictors, both geomorphological, geological, climatological information and numerical data obtained by running a limitedarea weather model. Two standard statistical techniques are used to combine the predictor variables: a generalized linear model and Breiman's random forests. We tested these models for two rainfall events that occurred in 2011 and 2013 in Tuscany region (central Italy). Modelling results are compared with field data and the forecasting skill is evaluated by mean of sensitivity-specificity receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. In the 2011 rainfall event, the random forests technique performs slightly better than generalized linear model with area under the ROC curve (AUC) values around 0.91 vs. 0.84. In the 2013 rainfall event, both models provide AUC values around 0.7.Using the variable importance output provided by the random forests algorithm, we assess the added value carried by numerical weather forecast. The main results are as follows: (i) for the rainfall event that occurred in 2011 most of the NWP data, and in particular hourly rainfall intensities, are classified as "important" and (ii) for the rainfall event that occurred in 2013 only NWP soil moisture data in the first centimetres below ground is found to be relevant for landslide assessment. In the discussions we argue how these results are connected to the type of precipitation observed in the two events.

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“…can provide the necessary ingredients for the convective activity, other important mesoscale factors and/or finer-scale processes contribute to continuously focus the activity over the same specific region (the necessary forced ascent to trigger and/or maintain the convection)". Moreover, simulations of extreme rainfall events are very sensitive to the details and precise timing of these mesoscale factors, despite their being embedded in a large-scale synoptic system (Argence et al, 2008;Ducrocq et al, 2008;Fiori et al, 2014).…”

Section: Synoptic Circulation Patterns That Induce Heavy Rainmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review Article: Atmospheric conditions inducing extreme precipitation over the eastern and western Mediterranean

Dayan

Nissen

Ulbrich

2015

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

100

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Abstract. This review discusses published studies of heavy rainfall events over the Mediterranean Basin, combining them in a more general picture of the dynamic and thermodynamic factors and processes that produce heavy rain storms. It distinguishes the western and eastern Mediterranean in order to point out specific regional peculiarities. The crucial moisture for developing intensive convection over these regions can be originated not only from the adjacent Mediterranean Sea but also from distant upwind sources. Transport from remote sources is usually in the mid-tropospheric layers and associated with specific features and patterns of the larger-scale circulations. The synoptic systems (tropical and extratropical) that account for most of the major extreme precipitation events and the coupling of circulation and extreme rainfall patterns are presented. Heavy rainfall over the Mediterranean Basin is caused at times in concert by several atmospheric processes working at different atmospheric scales, such as local convection, upper synoptic-scale-level troughs, and mesoscale convective systems. Under tropical air-mass intrusions, convection generated by static instability seems to play a more important role than synoptic-scale vertical motions. Locally, the occurrence of torrential rains and their intensity is dependent on factors such as temperature profiles and implied instability, atmospheric moisture, and lower-level convergence.

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Analysis and hindcast simulations of an extreme rainfall event in the Mediterranean area: The Genoa 2011 case

Cited by 170 publications

References 40 publications

Comparing One-Way and Two-Way Coupled Hydrometeorological Forecasting Systems for Flood Forecasting in the Mediterranean Region

Comparing One-Way and Two-Way Coupled Hydrometeorological Forecasting Systems for Flood Forecasting in the Mediterranean Region

Statistical modelling of rainfall-induced shallow landsliding using static predictors and numerical weather predictions: preliminary results

Review Article: Atmospheric conditions inducing extreme precipitation over the eastern and western Mediterranean

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