Analysis and modelling of rainfall fields at different resolutions in southern Italy

Luca, Davide Luciano De

doi:10.1080/02626667.2014.926013

Cited by 16 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…Djibo et al [12] used a probabilistic approach statistical seasonal streamflow forecasting over West African Sahel; the input variables were sea level pressure, relative humidity, and air temperature. Biondi and De Luca [13,14] considered a simple lumped and conceptual rainfall-runoff model for design flood estimation in gauged and ungauged catchments in southern Italy, by considering as input 500-years of 20-min synthetic rainfall data, derived from a daily rainfall generator and a specific downscaling procedure for Southern Italy. Previous studies primarily focused on precipitation and antecedent runoff as the inputs for runoff forecasting, however, less attention was paid to fully incorporate large-scale climate variables and other local-scale climate variables as the inputs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improved Medium- and Long-Term Runoff Forecasting Using a Multimodel Approach in the Yellow River Headwaters Region Based on Large-Scale and Local-Scale Climate Information

Chen

Wei

et al. 2017

Water

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Medium-and long-term runoff forecasting is essential for hydropower generation and water resources coordinated regulation in the Yellow River headwaters region. Climate change has a great impact on runoff within basins, and incorporating different climate information into runoff forecasting can assist in creating longer lead-times in planning periods. In this paper, a multimodel approach was developed to further improve the accuracy and reliability of runoff forecasting fully considering of large-scale and local-scale climatic factors. First, with four large-scale atmospheric oscillations, sea surface temperature, precipitation, and temperature as the predictors, multiple linear regression (MLR), radial basis function neural network (RBFNN), and support vector regression (SVR) models were built. Next, a Bayesian model averaging (BMA)-based multimodel was developed using weighted MLR, RBFNN, and SVR models, and the performance of the BMA-based multimodel was compared to those of the MLR, RBFNN, and SVR models. Finally, the high-runoff performance of these four models was further analyzed to prove the effectiveness of each model. The BMA-based multimodel performed better than those of the other models, as well as high-runoff forecasting. The results also revealed that the performance of the forecasting models with multiple climatic factors were generally superior to that without climatic factors. The BMA-based multimodel with climatic factors not only provides a promising, reliable method for medium-and long-term runoff forecasting, but also facilitates uncertainty estimation under different confidence intervals.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improved Medium- and Long-Term Runoff Forecasting Using a Multimodel Approach in the Yellow River Headwaters Region Based on Large-Scale and Local-Scale Climate Information

Chen

Wei

et al. 2017

Water

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“…Given a return period, the alternating-block method combines in a single theoretical storm the most adverse statistics for several durations, which originally derive from different historical rainfall events. Conceptually, this is a worst-case-scenario storm ignoring actual rainfall patterns found in the rainfall registers, yielding to a volume overestimation (Di Baldassarre et al, 2006). For the aggregated Gamma storm, differences with regard to the continuous model are more limited, in all cases, which supports the conclusion of having generated a synthetic storm that not only reproduces peak intensities properly but also respects the observed temporal patterns and, consequently, reproduces better storm volumes.…”

Section: Comparison With the Alternating-block Design Stormmentioning

confidence: 62%

Response to Referee Comment 2016-644-RC2 - Anonymous Referee #2

Andrés‐Domenech¹

2017

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The following research explores the feasibility of building effective design storms for extreme hydrological regimes, such as the one which characterizes the rainfall regime of the east and south-east of the Iberian Peninsula, without employing intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves as a starting point. Nowadays, after decades of functioning hydrological automatic networks, there is an abundance of high-resolution rainfall data with a reasonable statistic representation, which enable the direct research of temporal patterns and inner structures of rainfall events at a given geographic location, with the aim of establishing a statistical synthesis directly based on those observed patterns. The authors propose a temporal design storm defined in analytical terms, through a two-parameter gamma-type function. The two parameters are directly estimated from 73 independent storms identified from rainfall records of high temporal resolution in Valencia (Spain). All the relevant analytical properties derived from that function are developed in order to use this storm in real applications. In particular, in order to assign a probability to the design storm (return period), an auxiliary variable combining maximum intensity and total cumulated rainfall is introduced. As a result, for a given return period, a set of three storms with different duration, depth and peak intensity are defined. The consistency of the results is verified by means of comparison with the classic method of alternating blocks based on an IDF curve, for the above mentioned study case.

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“…One of the downsides of this process is the fact that it ignores, in its approach, aspects relative to the actual duration and structure -or inner pattern -of intensities of rain, visible in high-resolution rainfall registers. In some countries, automatic pluviometer networks have been working for decades and thus, detailed information is now available, allowing engineers to undertake such matters with statistical representativity (De Luca, 2014).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A two-parameter design storm for Mediterranean convective rainfall

García-Bartual

Andrés‐Domenech

2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The following research explores the feasibility of building effective design storms for extreme hydrological regimes, such as the one which characterizes the rainfall regime of the east and south-east of the Iberian Peninsula, without employing intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves as a starting point. Nowadays, after decades of functioning hydrological automatic networks, there is an abundance of high-resolution rainfall data with a reasonable statistic representation, which enable the direct research of temporal patterns and inner structures of rainfall events at a given geographic location, with the aim of establishing a statistical synthesis directly based on those observed patterns. The authors propose a temporal design storm defined in analytical terms, through a two-parameter gamma-type function. The two parameters are directly estimated from 73 independent storms identified from rainfall records of high temporal resolution in Valencia (Spain). All the relevant analytical properties derived from that function are developed in order to use this storm in real applications. In particular, in order to assign a probability to the design storm (return period), an auxiliary variable combining maximum intensity and total cumulated rainfall is introduced. As a result, for a given return period, a set of three storms with different duration, depth and peak intensity are defined. The consistency of the results is verified by means of comparison with the classic method of alternating blocks based on an IDF curve, for the above mentioned study case.

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Analysis and modelling of rainfall fields at different resolutions in southern Italy

Cited by 16 publications

References 43 publications

Improved Medium- and Long-Term Runoff Forecasting Using a Multimodel Approach in the Yellow River Headwaters Region Based on Large-Scale and Local-Scale Climate Information

Improved Medium- and Long-Term Runoff Forecasting Using a Multimodel Approach in the Yellow River Headwaters Region Based on Large-Scale and Local-Scale Climate Information

Response to Referee Comment 2016-644-RC2 - Anonymous Referee #2

A two-parameter design storm for Mediterranean convective rainfall

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