Analysis and prediction of readmissions for heart failure in the first year after discharge with INCA score

Abstract

To determine the readmissions trends and the comorbidities of patients with heart failure that most influence hospital readmission rates. Heart failure (HF) is one of the most prevalent health problems as it causes loss of quality of life and increased health-care costs. Its prevalence increases with age and is a major cause of re-hospitalisation within 30 days after discharge. INCA study had observational and ambispective design, including 4,959 patients from 2000 to 2019, with main diagnosis of HF in Extremadura (Spain). The variables examined were collected from discharge reports. To develop the readmission index, capable of discriminating the population with higher probability of re-hospitalisation, a Competing-risk model was generated. Readmission rate have increased over the period under investigation. The main predictors of readmission were: age, diabetes mellitus, presence of neoplasia, HF without previous hospitalisation, atrial fibrillation, anaemia, previous myocardial infarction, obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and chronic kidney disease (CKD). These variables were assigned values with balanced weights, our INCA index showed that the population with values greater than 2 for men and women were more likely to be re-admitted. Previous HF without hospital admission, CKD, and COPD appear to have the greatest effect on readmission. Our index allowed us to identify patients with different risks of readmission.