Analysis and Prioritization the Effective Factors on Increasing Farmers Resilience Under Climate Change and Drought

Abstract

California is severely exposed to drought and damage due to the climate change and drought belt, which has a major impact on agriculture. So, after the drought crisis, there are various reactions from farmers. The extent of the damage caused by the socioeconomic, environment and the extent of the resistance of farmers to this crisis is manifested in a variety of ways. Recognizing the population’s resilience and the involved human groups is a tool for preventing a catastrophe-based increase in life-threatening areas in high-risk areas. Sometimes the inability to manage this phenomenon (especially under the climate change) leads to farmers’ desertification and agricultural land release, which itself indicates a low level of resilience and resilience to the crisis. The recent drought under the climate change condition in California and the severity of the damage sustained by farmers continue to be vulnerable. The present study seeks to prioritize and prioritize resilience of farmers to the crisis under the climate change. This study simulated drought condition with using PDSI value for current and future time period. In order to calculate PDSI values, the climatic parameters extracted from CMIP5 models and downscaled under the scenario of RCP 8.5. Also in order to understand the resilience of the agriculture activities under the climate change, this study was performed using statistical tests and data from the questionnaire completed in the statistical population of 320 farmers in the Tulare region in California. The findings of the research by t test showed that the average level of effective factors in increasing the resilience of farmers in the region is low. This is particularly significant in relation to the factors affecting government policies and support. So that only the mean of five variables is higher than the numerical desirability of the test and the other 15 variables do not have a suitable status for increasing the resilience of the farmers. Also, the results of the Vikor model showed that most of the impact on their resilience to drought and climate change was the development of agricultural insurance, the second important impact belongs to drought monitoring system, climate change and damage assessment, and variable of attention to knowledge is in third place of the important factor.

Examining the association between dust and sediment and evaluating the impact of climate change on dust and providing adaptation

“…The average flow of the Karkheh River is 200 cubic meters per second and the flow of the river is about 12 billion cubic meters per year. The average rate of soil erosion in the basin is 16 tons per hectare per year, which unfortunately at the level of 430 thousand hectares of soil erosion in the basin is about 26 tons per hectare per year, which is one of the critical areas in terms of planning and prioritization and the first priority is the work of the designated field [16,17] . Figure 1.…”

“…The effective factors that have been studied on floods in this area are the time of snowfall, the depth of accumulated snow, the slope of the basin, the shape of the basin, soil type and vegetation, respectively. Therefore, in some dry seasons of the year, the flow of Karkheh River at the entrance of the dam reaches less than 18 cubic meters per second and in flood seasons reaches more than 5100 cubic meters per second [29][30][31] .…”

Investigation of the effect of climate change on heat waves

“…Reducing the consequences of heat waves depends on identifying thermal waves, their predictions, discovering ways to reduce their effects on general health and identifying areas that are vulnerable to heat waves [18][19][20][21] . So today, one of the most important concerns about climate hazards is the occurrence of heat waves that affect human societies extensively [22][23][24][25] . The incidence and severity of heat waves in parts of the world have increased in recent years [26][27][28] .…”

“…Also, heat waves in southeastern Asia have caused mortality in many people in recent years [33,34] . Due to the increasing global warming in the last decades, there have been studies in the field of thermal wave in the context of climate change studies in different parts of the world [35,36] .…”

Evaluation of hydro-meteorological drought indices for characterizing historical and future droughts and their impact on groundwater

“…There are several studies about drought indices, like Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), Comprehensive Meteorological Drought Index (CMDI), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and so on. [23][24][25][26][27] The choice of indices is mainly related to research purposes (e.g., drought defence and reservoir process, water supply organization, ecosystem organization and wetlands). In this research, three drought indices, SPI, SRI, and GRI, were used for drought defense and help water managers make proper planning during drought conditions.…”