Analysis and Probabilistic Modeling of the Stationary Ice Loads Stochastic Process With Lognormal Distribution

Abstract

Until recent times researchers who investigated ice loads stochastic processes usually stated the fact of normal distribution for them. In the paper the model of a stationary stochastic process with a lognormal distribution for ice loads is offered. This model relates to the strain gauge transducer ice loads measurements as well as to some examples considered in different papers that were published earlier. For this model dependencies of the autocorrelation function were found that allows to simulate the ice loads process relatively easily. The procedure of such a simulation is described in details and the example of the analysis and simulation ice loads measurements is provided.

A method for the probabilistic modelling of ice pressure

“…There are special algorithms for getting correlated random values. Such algorithm for correlated lognormal variables is described in the paper (Zvyagin and Sazonov, 2014).…”

Offshore Wind Turbine-Ice Interactions

“…Bekker et al (2013) estimated the contact interaction of an ice hummock and ice floe to predict the ice load on a cylinder using commercial CFD software. Zvyagin and Sazonov (2014) used a probabilistic model to simulate the stochastic ice loads. Taylor and Richard (2014) For a 5 MW OWT on a monopile with a diameter of 6 m interacting with drifting ice that has a thickness 0.5 m, the ice-structure interaction could generate dynamic forces as high as a maximum of 15 MN under conservative simplifications (Nguyen et al 2014).…”

Numerical study of ice-induced loads and responses of a monopile-type offshore wind turbine in parked and operating conditions

“…Gürtner et al (2009) simulated ice actions on Norströmsgrund lighthouse by means of a finite element model of the ice with the computational cohesive elements model. Zvyagin and Sazonov(2014) used a probabilistic model to simulate the stochastic ice loads. Bekker et al (2013) estimated contact interaction of ice hummock and ice floe to predict the ice load on a cylinder using commercial CFD-software.…”