Analysis Method Research on the Importance of the Factors Influencing the Flow Safety of Heated Crude Pipelines

Abstract

Analyzing the importance of the factors which influence the flow safety of the heated oil pipeline is an important part of the whole assessment process, which is of great significance on the results analysis, phenomenon explanation, and risk control after the assessment. Focusing on the problems in the influencing factors' importance analysis on crude oil pipeline flow assurance assessment, a new method to analyze the importance of the influencing factors is proposed which considers the factors' fluctuations. Based on the actual probability distribution of the influencing factors during the stable operation of the pipeline, a new measure standard of the factors' importance is defined which can measure different factors importance and realize the importance sorting of each factor. The influence of different factors on the inlet temperature is taken as an example. The importance analysis and sensitivity analysis of the influencing factors on the actual pipeline have been done, the results of which are also compared. The results show that this method can combine the pipeline actual operating conditions and the influencing factors' actual fluctuation, reflecting the effect on the results' importance in different values of each factor and different fluctuation. This method can make comprehensive analysis on the importance of the influencing factors effectively.