Analysis of Building Parameter Uncertainty in District Heating for Optimal Control of Network Flexibility

Abstract

Network flexibility is the use of the thermal capacity of water that is contained in the district heating network pipes to store energy and shift the heat load in time. Through optimal control, this network flexibility can aid in applications such as peak shaving and operational heat pump optimisation. Yet, optimal control requires perfect predictions and complete knowledge of the system characteristics. In reality, this is not the case and uncertainties exist. To obtain insight into the importance of these uncertainties, this paper studies the influence of imperfect knowledge of building parameters on the optimal network flexibility activation and its performance. It is found that for the optimisation of heat pump operation, building parameter uncertainties do not present large risks. For peak shaving, a more robust result can be achieved by activating more network flexibility than may be required.

Sustainability and carbon neutrality in UK's district heating: A review and analysis

“…DH Networks provide flexibility by using the thermal capacity of water that is contained in the district heating network pipes to store energy and shift the heat load in time [21]. They are predicted to provide a substantial contribution towards future carbon neutral heating in the UK, particularly to urban areas [22].…”

Optimal control of a fourth generation district heating network using an integrated non-linear model predictive controller

“…The parts of a DH system that need to be controlled entail the heat supply units and the heat distribution network. However, controlling the heating system of the buildings in the DH network can further improve the overall system performance, since the thermal inertia of these buildings offers a significant amount of flexibility for the MPC [4]. Therefore, the buildings' physics should be included in the controller model such that this flexibility can be exploited by the MPC.…”

“…SH discomfort and electrical energy use for the period 28-31 January (winter) and 27-30 April (spring) for RBC and MPC 4. …”

Flexibility Estimation of Residential Heat Pumps under Heat Demand Uncertainty

“…It used a modified Optimal Power Flow (OPF) to evaluate the feasibility of the flexibility provision [16]. Furthermore, case studies have been performed to investigate the impact of the aggregation of heat pumps and uncertainties inherent in forecasts and building parameters [17,18]. It is revealed that it is beneficial to include domestic hot water (DHW) demand within the optimization model to deal with the high unpredictability of the DHW consumption.…”