Analysis of Climate Change and Sustainable Development in Peru and Its Departments during the Year 2006 - 2018

Abstract

Aims: Analyze and relate the general index of climate change and sustainable development of Peru and its departments during the year 2006 - 2018.
 Study Design: The research is not intended to deliberately manipulate the variables, therefore, it is non-experimental; is descriptive, correlational and longitudinal.
 Place and Duration of Study: The research project was carried out in the Faculty of Forestry and Environmental Sciences of the UNCP, likewise the collection of information data was carried out during 2020 and 2021, due to the Covid19 pandemic.
 Methodology: Two economic data, four social data and five environmental data were selected, in addition climatic data of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature of the 24 departments of Peru were collected during the years 2006 - 2018; To estimate the climatic and sustainable indices, the Prescott-Allen methodology was applied, the interpretation and assessment scale (climate change and sustainable development) was carried out using the barometric analysis of McCarthy. Five regression models were applied [dependent variable GISD; independent variable IGCC], hypothesis testing was performed using Karl Pearson's r coefficient and p-value at 0.05.
 Results: It is stated that Peru presents an economic sustainable index [EcSI] of 0.066 low, social sustainability [SoSI]: 0.225 medium, environmental sustainability [EnSI]: 0.282 high and general index of sustainable development [GISD] is 0.572 medium. In itself the climate index of precipitation is [CPrI]: 0.079 weak, the climate index maximum temperature [CTxI]: 0.251 severe, climate index minimum temperature [CTnI]: 0.138 weak and the general index of climate change [GICC] is 0.468 moderate. Two appropriate regression models [linear and exponential] were determined to estimate the GISD as a function of the GICC, CPrI, CTxI and CTnI.
 Conclusion: It was found that during the year 2006 to 2018 Peru presented a low economic, social medium, high environmental situation and therefore its sustainable development is in a medium situation; while precipitation is weak, severe maximum temperature, weak minimum temperature, and therefore, climate change has a moderate impact. Likewise, it is stated that there are two linear and exponential regression models to estimate the GISD based on the GICC, CPrI, CTxI and CTnI. It is recommended to collect more climatic data and economic indicators to be able to differentiate the economic and climatic situation that Peru and departments represent during its thirteen years of development.