Analysis of climate change in Northern Ethiopia: implications for agricultural production

Hadgu, Gebre; Tesfaye, Kindie; Mamo, Girma

doi:10.1007/s00704-014-1261-5

Cited by 48 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 31 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Though the presented temperature changes vary spatially (over the three stations) and across the 19 GCMs, projections show a clear and consistent continuous increase of minimum and maximum temperatures at all locations. This agrees with previous reports that indicated future warming of the air in the different parts of Ethiopia (Hadgu et al 2015;Ayalew et al 2012;Conway and Schipper 2011;Setegn et al 2011;Yimer et al 2009). NMA (2007) was also reported an increase in mean annual temperature by 0.2 °C per decade over the country between 1960 and 2006 period.…”

Section: Future Climate and Consequent Yields Changes Projected Changsupporting

confidence: 93%

“…Both under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 an increase in rainfall is consistently projected for Hawassa, meanwhile the rainfall increase is limited for Bako under RCP4.5 (which shows the largest number of outliers). The results are in agreement with those previously reported in the other parts of the country (e.g., Hadgu et al 2015;Muluneh et al 2015;Tesfaye et al 2014;Kassie et al 2013). Kassie et al (2013) found an increase in annual rainfall and the highest was projected to increase by 28 and 38% for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively.…”

Section: Projected Changes In Rainfallsupporting

confidence: 93%

“…There are high levels of confidence in forecasting ongoing temperature and mean rainfall increase over the country, however, climate change impacts depend on the extent of emission scenarios and climatic models. For instance, there are several studies that showed Ethiopia would experience further warming by the years 2020s and 2050s in all seasons (Hadgu et al 2015;Jury and Funk 2013;Ayalew et al 2012;Conway and Schipper 2011). Annual rainfall is also expected to increase, but there is much uncertainty on the spatial and temporal patterns (Conway and Schipper 2011;Bewket and Conway 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Annual rainfall is also expected to increase, but there is much uncertainty on the spatial and temporal patterns (Conway and Schipper 2011;Bewket and Conway 2007). Consequently climate change is expected to significantly impact crop production (Muluneh et al 2015;Deressa and Hassan 2009), thus bearing profound effects on the livelihood of local communities (Hadgu et al 2015;Kassie et al 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Simulating the impact of climate change on maize production in Ethiopia, East Africa

et al. 2018

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background: Climate change is expected to significantly impact agricultural production across Africa. While a number of studies assessed this impact in semi-arid southern Africa, or tropical West Africa, only a limited number took interest in the mountainous and climatically varying Ethiopia of eastern Africa. This study assesses the impact of climate change on maize production in three representative sites of maize growing areas in Ethiopia. The assessment relies on the DSSAT crop model simulation of maize under current climate and future projections (19 Global Climate Models and 2 Representative Concentration Pathways). The period 1980-2010 was used to represent the baseline climate, while future climate projections cover three periods; near term (2010-2039), mid-century (2040-2069) and end-of-century (2070-2099). Climate, soil and crop management data were collected for the study sites representing the maize growing areas in the country. Results:Results show that maize yields will decrease by up to 43 and 24% by the end of the century at Bako and Melkassa stations, respectively, while simulated maize yield in Hawassa show an increase of 51%. On the one hand, rainfall variability and rising temperatures are determining factors explaining yield decrease in Bako and Melkassa, while projected rainfall increase in Hawassa explain simulated yield increases. Conclusion:The terrain and climate high variability of Ethiopia is emphasizing the extremely different responses of current agricultural systems to climate change. Though adaptation approached can address some negative impacts, and in some case can take advantage of changes, this study reveals that dedicated local knowledge is necessary for national and regional decision makers to respond with local relevance to a global exposure, in order to face food security challenges.

show abstract

Section: Future Climate and Consequent Yields Changes Projected Changsupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: Projected Changes In Rainfallsupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Simulating the impact of climate change on maize production in Ethiopia, East Africa

et al. 2018

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In Ethiopia, the northern part of the country is affected by climate change and variability (Hadgu et al 2015;Araya 2011), coupled with high rainfall variability (Araya and Stroosnijder 2011). The region is characterized by erratic rainfall, short length of growing period, where late onset and early cessation of rain frequently occur, affecting crop growth and yield.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in extreme temperature and rainfall indices in the semi-arid areas of Western Tigray, Ethiopia

et al. 2020

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background: Africa is the most vulnerable continent in the world; which recurrent droughts, extreme temperature and rainfall affects agriculture and food security. The aim of this study was to analyze the trends in extreme temperature and rainfall in major sesame producing areas in western Tigray using RClimDex software. We selected eight temperature and nine rainfall indices from 27 extreme temperature and rainfall indices, which are recommended by joint CCL/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). A non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimates were used to test the statistical significance and trend of each of the extreme temperature and rainfall indices, respectively.Results: Number of heavy rainy days, number of very heavy rainy days, very wet days, extremely wet days, and maximum 5 days precipitation showed a negative trend, with significant (p < 0.05) decrease throughout the study area. Monthly maximum value of maximum and minimum value of maximum temperature, monthly maximum and minimum value of minimum temperature, hot days and hot nights revealed positive trend throughout the study areas. Total rainfall was decreasing significantly (p < 0.05) by 13.34 mm, 13.8 mm, 14.65 mm, 10.9 mm and 8.4 mm/year at Humera and Dansha, Adiremets, Maygaba, Maytsebri and Sheraro, and Adigoshu, respectively. Spatial analysis on extreme temperature also indicated there was relatively lower variability on minimum temperature in Humera, Dansha, Adiremets, and Adigoshu. On average, the western part of Tigray experienced a reduction in total rainfall ranging 8.45 to 14.7 mm/year; and increase in average maximum temperature of 0.04 to 0.051 °C/year since 1983 to 2016. The results also revealed an increase in warm nights and warm days ranging from 0.31 to 0.62 days, and 0.38 to 0.71 days/ year, respectively. Conclusions:Increase in temperature and decrease in amount of rainfall may have a negative impact on crop transpiration, photosynthetic rate and soil water balance; exacerbating distribution and infestation of malaria and leishmaniasis. The results in this study could have an important role in identifying possible present and future production strategies on sesame, cotton, and sorghum crops, which are essential cash crops produced by farmers and investors.

show abstract

Dryland climate change: Recent progress and challenges

Huang

et al. 2017

Reviews of Geophysics

638

331

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Drylands are home to more than 38% of the world's population and are one of the most sensitive areas to climate change and human activities. This review describes recent progress in dryland climate change research. Recent findings indicate that the long‐term trend of the aridity index (AI) is mainly attributable to increased greenhouse gas emissions, while anthropogenic aerosols exert small effects but alter its attributions. Atmosphere‐land interactions determine the intensity of regional response. The largest warming during the last 100 years was observed over drylands and accounted for more than half of the continental warming. The global pattern and interdecadal variability of aridity changes are modulated by oceanic oscillations. The different phases of those oceanic oscillations induce significant changes in land‐sea and north‐south thermal contrasts, which affect the intensity of the westerlies and planetary waves and the blocking frequency, thereby altering global changes in temperature and precipitation. During 1948–2008, the drylands in the Americas became wetter due to enhanced westerlies, whereas the drylands in the Eastern Hemisphere became drier because of the weakened East Asian summer monsoon. Drylands as defined by the AI have expanded over the last 60 years and are projected to expand in the 21st century. The largest expansion of drylands has occurred in semiarid regions since the early 1960s. Dryland expansion will lead to reduced carbon sequestration and enhanced regional warming. The increasing aridity, enhanced warming, and rapidly growing population will exacerbate the risk of land degradation and desertification in the near future in developing countries.

show abstract

Analysis of climate change in Northern Ethiopia: implications for agricultural production

Cited by 48 publications

References 31 publications

Simulating the impact of climate change on maize production in Ethiopia, East Africa

Simulating the impact of climate change on maize production in Ethiopia, East Africa

Trends in extreme temperature and rainfall indices in the semi-arid areas of Western Tigray, Ethiopia

Dryland climate change: Recent progress and challenges

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About