Analysis of climatic factors leading to future summer heatstroke risk changes in Tokyo and Sendai based on dynamical downscaling of pseudo global warming data using WRF

YAMAMOTO, Miguel; Kasai, Masataka; Okaze, Tsubasa; Hanaoka, Kazumasa; Mochida, Akashi

doi:10.1016/j.jweia.2018.10.001

Cited by 15 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…As megacities with high urbanization, Tokyo and Shanghai suffer from severe UHIs [78,85,86] and extreme heat events [87] during summer. Tokyo experienced a series of heatwaves in 2010, and the number of heat stroke patients soared to about six times that of previous years; since 2010, the number of heat stroke patients has continued to rise [16]. Heat waves in Shanghai in 2003 and 2013 caused 516 and 1347 deaths, respectively [88].…”

Section: Study Areasmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…UHIs worsen the conditions in the urban thermal environment and negatively affect energy consumption [8][9][10] and the health of urban residents [5,[11][12][13][14]. As UHIs and global warming continue, the conditions in the urban thermal environment will become more severe and cause even greater negative impacts on energy consumption and the health of urban residents [15,16]. Therefore, mitigating UHIs to improve the conditions in the urban thermal environment is an important issue that is receiving increased attention from researchers, urban planners, and policymakers [17,18].…”

Section: Introduction 1understanding and Mitigating Urban Heat Island...mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effective Factors for Reducing Land Surface Temperature in Each Local Climate Zone Built Type in Tokyo and Shanghai

2023

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Identifying the main factors influencing the land surface temperature (LST) of each local climate zone (LCZ) built type is of great significance for controlling LST. This study investigated the main factors influencing the LST of each LCZ built type in two Asian megacities: Tokyo and Shanghai. Each area in both megacities was classified according to the LCZ scheme. The diurnal LST, pervious surface fraction (PSF), surface albedo (SA), average building height (⟨BH⟩), and gross building coverage ratio (λp) of each LCZ were also calculated. Finally, the influence of the properties of each LCZ built type on LST was investigated. The results demonstrated that the main factors influencing LST of different LCZ built types differed in Tokyo and Shanghai. ⟨BH⟩ was the main factor influencing LST for compact mid-rise and open high-rise types in Tokyo, and the compact mid-rise type in Shanghai; PSF was the main factor influencing LST for other LCZ built types. Moreover, both ⟨BH⟩ and PSF negatively correlated with LST. Based on the above results and characteristics of each LCZ built type, specific LST mitigation strategies for each LCZ built type were proposed for Tokyo and Shanghai. The approach in this study can contribute to perspectives for urban planners and policymakers to develop highly feasible and reasonable LST mitigation strategies.

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Section: Study Areasmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introduction 1understanding and Mitigating Urban Heat Island...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Effective Factors for Reducing Land Surface Temperature in Each Local Climate Zone Built Type in Tokyo and Shanghai

2023

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“…In summary, the bias-corrected model outputs can, to a great extent, generate the regional-scale characteristics of the summer temperatures realistically at each selected urban agglomeration faithfully, which suggests the reliability of using WRF downscaling for projecting the HW indices' future changes. We note that a few efforts recently attempted to apply the WRF dynamic downscaling method to revisit the regional impacts of global warming (Yamamoto et al, 2018;Ge et al, 2021).…”

Section: Model Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Changes of Summer Heat Waves Over Urban Agglomerations in Eastern China Under 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global Warming

Wang

Lin

2022

Front. Earth Sci.

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Extreme hot events have increased evidently under global warming, particularly in the urban areas. This study aims to explore the detailed features of future changes in summer heat waves (HWs) over three major urban agglomerations (Beijing Tianjin Hebei, BTH; Yangtze River Delta, YRD; Pearl River Delta, PRD) in eastern China under 1.5 and 2.0°C warming scenario by using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with the updated land cover data for China (ChinaLC), which is also coupled with urban canopy model. Based on the future projection results from Community Earth System Model (CESM) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, dynamic downscaling with high-resolution WRF has been performed to project the future changes in frequency, duration and intensity of summer HWs in urban agglomerations under 1.5 and 2.0°C warming scenarios respectively. Compared with the historical period, it is found that both the summer HWs indices and the HWs affected areas all increase significantly under 1.5 and 2.0°C warming scenarios. The increasing rates of the three HWs indices are above 50% under 1.5°C warming situation, and 70% for 2.0°C warming scenario, with the increasing rate of HWs intensity even exceeding 200%. It is noted that an additional 0.5°C warming from 1.5 to 2.0°C can produce much larger impact on the future HWs changes in YRD, with the HWs intensity increased by 75.5% from 1.5 to 2.0°C warming scenarios. It is further found that the changes of HWs indices in urban area is much higher than that of non-urban areas under 1.5 and 2.0°C warming, indicating that the urban areas will face higher risk of heat-related illness or environments than suburban or rural areas in the future. Our results can provide further scientific support for the mitigation and adaption strategy for the future HWs risk in mega-cities.

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“…Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models are powerful approaches to tackle different aspects of urban studies with their reasonable advantages in flexibility and accuracy. In specific, CFD models have been extensively used for evaluation and analysis of building energy (Allegrini & Carmeliet, 2017;Allegrini, Dorer, & Carmeliet, 2015;Charisi, Waszczuk, & Thiis, 2019;Malys, Musy, & Inard, 2015;Akashi Mochida, Yoshino, Miyauchi, & Mitamura, 2006;Phan & Lin, 2019;Mohammadreza Shirzadi, Naghashzadegan, & Mirzaei, 2019;Tong, Chen, & Malkawi, 2016;Zhang, Mirzaei, & Jones, 2018), urban heat island mitigation (Kurbatskii, 2001;Mirzaei & Haghighat, 2012), pollution dispersion in cities (Mirzaei & Haghighat, 2011;Tominaga & Stathopoulos, 2011, wind energy utilization (Mirzaei & Rad, 2013), mesoscale meteorological simulation (Yamamoto, Kasai, Okaze, Hanaoka, & Mochida, 2018), pedestrian comfort (Iqbal & Chan, 2016;Ishida, Okaze, & Mochida, 2018;Liu, Heidarinejad, Pitchurov, Zhang, & Srebric, 2018), and sand erosion (Tominaga, Okaze, & Mochida, 2018). Despite the increasing popularity of CFD models and their noticeable lower cost in comparison with wind tunnel and field measurements, in terms of implementation and time, their accuracy for wind related studies in urban areas are limited (M. Shirzadi, Mirzaei, & Naghashzadegan, 2017;M.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Experimental and steady-RANS CFD modelling of cross-ventilation in moderately-dense urban areas

Shirzadi

Tominaga

Mirzaei

2020

Sustainable Cities and Society

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Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models based on the steady Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes (SRANS) equations are vastly used for calculation of airflow field inside and around cross-ventilated buildings. However, most of the developed CFD guidelines ignore CFD challenges related to cross-ventilation modeling in terms of flow unsteadiness, high level of gradients of airflow parameters, and complex interactions between the indoor and outdoor flows.Hence, a systematic parametric study was performed in this study for a generic crossventilated building model with a planar area ratio of 0.25 against different wind angles while effects of different CFD parameters, including advection and diffusion terms discretization methods, mesh generation techniques, and turbulence models on prediction accuracy and convergence behavior of CFD solver were comprehensively studied.Results show that a particularly generated unstructured tetrahedral mesh configuration with significantly lower mesh numbers can provide comparable results with structured hexahedral mesh configuration. Furthermore, second-order discretization scheme for advection terms encounters convergence issues against the normal wind angle, but generally presents more accurate results against oblique wind angles. Moreover, twoequation turbulence models showed very low accuracy in the case of normal wind angle, but acceptable results were found for oblique wind angles.

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Analysis of climatic factors leading to future summer heatstroke risk changes in Tokyo and Sendai based on dynamical downscaling of pseudo global warming data using WRF

Cited by 15 publications

References 16 publications

Effective Factors for Reducing Land Surface Temperature in Each Local Climate Zone Built Type in Tokyo and Shanghai

Effective Factors for Reducing Land Surface Temperature in Each Local Climate Zone Built Type in Tokyo and Shanghai

Future Changes of Summer Heat Waves Over Urban Agglomerations in Eastern China Under 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global Warming

Experimental and steady-RANS CFD modelling of cross-ventilation in moderately-dense urban areas

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