Analysis of COVID-19 based on SEIR epidemic models in a multi-patch environment

Meng, Lan; Zhu, Wei

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-306960/v1

2021

DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-306960/v1

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Analysis of COVID-19 based on SEIR epidemic models in a multi-patch environment

Lan Meng

Wei Zhu

Abstract: In this paper, an n-patch SEIR epidemic model for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is presented. It is shown that there is unique disease-free equilibrium for this model. Then, the dynamic behavior is studied by the basic reproduction number. Some numerical simulations with three patches are given to validate the effectiveness of the theoretical results. The influence of quarantined rate and population migration rate on the basic reproduction number is also discussed by simulation.

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Role of immigration and emigration on the spread of COVID-19 in a multipatch environment: a case study of India

Das

Bandekar

Castellanos

et al. 2023

Sci Rep

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Human mobility has played a critical role in the spread of COVID-19. The understanding of mobility helps in getting information on the acceleration or control of the spread of disease. The COVID-19 virus has been spreading among several locations despite all the best efforts related to its isolation. To comprehend this, a multi-patch mathematical model of COVID-19 is proposed and analysed in this work, where-in limited medical resources, quarantining, and inhibitory behaviour of healthy individuals are incorporated into the model. Furthermore, as an example, the impact of mobility in a three-patch model is studied considering the three worst-hit states of India, i.e. Kerala, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu, as three patches. Key parameters and the basic reproduction number are estimated from the available data. Through results and analyses, it is seen that Kerala has a higher effective contact rate and has the highest prevalence. Moreover, if Kerala is isolated from Maharashtra or Tamil Nadu, the number of active cases will increase in Kerala but reduce in the other two states. Our findings indicate that the number of active cases will decrease in the high prevalence state and increase in the lower prevalence states if the emigration rate is higher than the immigration rate in the high prevalence state. Overall, proper travel restrictions are to be implemented to reduce or control the spread of disease from the high-prevalence state to other states with lower prevalence rates.

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Role of immigration and emigration on the spread of COVID-19 in a multipatch environment: a case study of India

Das

Bandekar

Castellanos

et al. 2023

Sci Rep

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

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Analysis of COVID-19 based on SEIR epidemic models in a multi-patch environment

Cited by 1 publication

References 21 publications

Role of immigration and emigration on the spread of COVID-19 in a multipatch environment: a case study of India

Role of immigration and emigration on the spread of COVID-19 in a multipatch environment: a case study of India

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