Analysis of COVID-19 infection waves in Tokyo by Avrami equation

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to simulate all COVID-19 infection waves in Tokyo, the capital of Japan, by phase transformation dynamics theory, and to quantitatively analyze the detailed structure of the waveform for estimating the cause. The whole infection wave in Tokyo was basically expressed by the superposition of the 5 major waves as in Japan as a whole. Among these waves, the detailed structure was seen in the 3rd and the 5th waves, where the number of infections increased remarkably due to the holidays. It was characterized as "New Year holiday effect" for New Year holidays, "Tokyo Olympics holiday effect" for Olympics holidays, and "Delta variant effect" for the replacement of the virus with Delta variant. Since this method had high simulation accuracy for the cumulative number of infections, it was effective in estimating the cause, the number of infections in the near future and the vaccination effect by quantitative analysis of the detailed structure of the waveform.

The effect of heterogeneous distributions of social norms on the spread of infectious diseases

“…In [35,36] data about the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan are fitted by considering the so-called Avrami equation [37,38] for describing the time behaviour of the infected density. The original Avrami equation can be written in the form [39]…”

The effect of heterogeneous distributions of social norms on the spread of infectious diseases

“…In References [21,22] some real data about epidemics CoVid-19 waves in Japan are fitted by considering the so-called Avrami [23,24] equation for describing the time behaviour of the infected density. The original Avrami equation can be written in the form [25]…”