Analysis of Crash Risks by Collision Type at Freeway Diverge Area Using Multivariate Modeling Technique

Li, Zhibin; Wang, Wei; Bai, Lu; Du, Muqing

doi:10.1061/(asce)te.1943-5436.0000757

Cited by 22 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…The coefficients of mainline AADT and ramp AADT are found to be positively associated with all collision types (except that the ramp AADT for angle collision is not significant). The result is straightforward and consistent with previous studies [1]- [3]. The estimated parameters of these two variables followed normal distributions as shown in Figure 3.…”

Section: Interpretation Of Impact Factorssupporting

confidence: 91%

“…Lane-balanced design is negatively related to all collision types, indicating that lane-balanced exit ramps have less crashes than those not lane-balanced. The result shows safety benefits of lane-balanced design in mitigating crashes at freeway diverge areas, which is supported by previous studies [1], [8]. The number of lanes on mainline (i.e.…”

Section: Interpretation Of Impact Factorssupporting

confidence: 84%

“…These studies were conducted by developing a number of crash prediction models based on count data modeling technique and discrete choice modeling technique [13], [14]. Crash frequency was modeled by count data models, such as Poisson model, negative binomial (NB) model, Poissonlognormal model, zero-inflated count model, and generalized estimating equation model, to evaluate the safety performance of freeway exit ramp as well as the related risk factors [1]- [8], [15]- [19].…”

Section: Literature Review a Safety Studies On Freeway Exit Rampmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Crash data used in this study were obtained from 367 freeway diverge areas in the State of Florida, United States [1,3]. The diverge area defined in this paper contains two influence areas, namely, (a) an area located within 1,500 ft (457 m) upstream of the painted nose, and (b) an area located within 1,000 ft (305 m) downstream of the painted nose.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Vehicles exiting freeways need to reduce speeds, diverge from through traffic on mainlines, and weave into deceleration lanes toward the entrance of exit ramps. Therefore, intense lane changes occur frequently at freeway diverge areas, which lead to disturbance to through traffic and results in high potential of traffic crashes [1]- [3]. Identifying risk factors that contribute to crashes at freeway diverge areas and understanding the impact of these factors would be beneficial towards the implementation of successful designs and/or countermeasures to improve the safety performance of freeway diverge areas.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Exploring Risk Factors With Crashes by Collision Type at Freeway Diverge Areas: Accounting for Unobserved Heterogeneity

Guo

Liu

et al. 2019

IEEE Access

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The objective of this paper is to evaluate the impact of various risk factors on traffic crashes presenting different collision types at freeway diverge areas. Three-year period crash data from 367 freeway diverge areas were obtained. Three types of collisions, including rear-end, sideswipe, and angle collisions, were considered. A random parameters multivariate Poisson-lognormal (RP-MVPLN) model was developed to accommodate both correlations between crashes across collision type and the unobserved heterogeneity across observations. For the performance comparison, an MVPLN was developed and compared with the RP-MVPLN model under the Bayesian framework. The result showed that the RP-MVPLN model outperformed the MVPLN model, which highlighted that accounting for the unobserved heterogeneous effects of risk factors could improve the model fit. The model estimation result showed that the risk factors, as well as their impacts on different collision types, were different. The mainline annual average daily traffic (AADT), the lane-balanced design, and the number of lanes on the mainline were found to be significantly associated with all types of collisions, whereas the deceleration lane length and road surface type only affected rear-end crashes. The exit ramp length and ramp AADT had significant impact on rear-end crashes and sideswipe crashes, but they did not affect angle crashes. The speed limit was negatively related with rear-end crashes and angle crashes, while it had no impact on sideswipe crashes. Three risk factors, which are the mainline AADT, ramp AADT, and speed limit, were found to have significant heterogeneous effects on crashes across observations. INDEX TERMS Collision type, freeway diverge area, random parameters, multivariate model, full Bayesian estimation.

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Section: Interpretation Of Impact Factorssupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Interpretation Of Impact Factorssupporting

confidence: 84%