Analysis of Dependencies between Gas and Electricity Distribution Grid Planning and Building Energy Retrofit Decisions

Abstract

<jats:p>Most macroeconomic studies predict a decline in final energy demand and the use of natural gas in the heating sector in Europe. In the course of building retrofitting, gas-based heating systems are predominantly replaced by electricity-based solutions. This influences the business models of electricity and especially gas distribution network operators (DNOs), where grid charges tend to rise. The resulting feedback effect could accelerate the decrease of demand and finally lead to the defection of the gas grid—an effect that has been neglected in energy system analysis so far. We present a multi-agent simulation with a rule-based gas and electricity DNO model and a building retrofit optimization model to analyze these interdependencies during the transformation path, focusing on the role of different technical, economic, and regulatory triggers. Our case studies for a real grid area of a German city shows that an interplay of the gas and electricity DNO’s strategy, as well as the building-, heating system-, grid-, and trigger-configuration, determine the decision on the extension, continuation, or defection of the gas grid infrastructure. Finally, strategies for how to reduce the risk of a gas grid defection, which are relevant for DNOs, policy makers, and creators of macro-economic models, are discussed.</jats:p>

Interdependencies of Infrastructure Investment Decisions in Multi-Energy Systems—A Sensitivity Analysis for Urban Residential Areas

“…Due to the high sensitivity of the operational expenses of gas heating systems to energy price fluctuations, it is possible that with a rising gas price, price parity of operational (OPEX) and investment expenditures (CAPEX) between gas burners and electric heat pumps will be achieved in the future. The point where a self-reinforcing feedback loop starts could trigger the defection of the gas grid [22]. This represents an endogenous feedback effect within the interrelated system of the gas and electricity DNO and building owners that mostly has been neglected in energy system analysis so far.…”

“…Work exists that has transferred these approaches to the gas sector: Some focus on the development of the gas DNO's business model and the corresponding grid charge development [16,17]. Others examine the feedback effect between actors in a specific network area and analyze the impact of variations in the regulatory and political framework and DNO strategies [22].…”

“…To analyze the interdependencies and influencing factors during the transformation, a case study on a selected real grid area is performed (Section 3.3). This grid area has already been analyzed on the basis of a multi-agent analysis in which the authors use the same building retrofit model [22]. This detailed analysis of the real grid area allows us to validate our simplified grid and DNO model.…”

A GIS-Based Planning Approach for Urban Power and Natural Gas Distribution Grids with Different Heat Pump Scenarios

“…The uncertain necessity of dismantling parts of the distribution grid in different ways due to a possibly declining natural gas demand has been recently addressed in [40]. The effects of increasing grid charges for natural gas that incentivize energetic refurbishment have been further investigated in [41].…”

pandapipes: an Open Source Piping Grid Calculation Package for the Application in Coupled Multi-Energy Grid Simulations

“…For instance, Then et al [5] give an overview of studies on the controversial role of the natural gas infrastructure and elaborate on the effects that a decline in energy demand can have on grid charges. In [6] they resume that increasing grid charges could accelerate gas grid defection as a self-induced effect. Kisse et al [7] investigate the effects that changes in heating technologies for residential buildings have on investments into electrical and gas grid expansion and CO 2 -emissions by evaluating a number of scenarios.…”