Analysis of Driving Factors Influencing Human Vaccine Development in Iran: a Cross-impact Analysis

Abstract

Background: Despite many successes in Immunization programs in Iran, vaccine policymaking has confronted with important weaknesses, and more effort is required to improve progress and prepare for the preferred future. In order to address the challenges facing vaccine development, this study has defined to identify influential factors on the future of development of human vaccines in Iran for strengthening evidence-based policy-making.Method:This mixed-method study aimed to analyze the factors affecting the future of human vaccine development using Cross Impact Analysis. Firstly, with a scoping review, the factors affecting the future of human vaccine development were identified. Secondly, a semi-structured interview was carried out with the determined experts in this sphere to add more factors and confirm the identified factors in the Iran context. Finally, a cross-impact analysis (CIA) approach was applied to understand the complex relationships between the given factors. Thematic analysis was used for the qualitative data and MICMAC analysis was applied for characterizing the relationships between factors.Results: Seventeen key driving forces factors were first identified through reviewing and interviewing. These factors are weighted from zero-three and analyzed by MICMAC software. The CIA technique characterized the effect of each one of these factors on vaccine development and then elaborated on the interaction between them. The results revealed that strong leadership and governance, innovation ecosystem, and immunization information systems were critical driving forces for developing vaccines in Iran. In fact, the degree of influence of these factors is much stronger than the degree of their dependency in the future. So, the vaccine development system is basically dependent on these key drivers. Conclusion: This study explores interactions among factors affecting vaccine development by using cross-impact analysis. It indicates that interactions among the identified factors do have a major influence on the overall system. Understanding the interactions among factors help policymakers formulating successful strategies for shaping a desirable future. Future studies could ratify the findings from this research applying other methodological approaches.