Analysis of Effects Resulting from Improved Vehicle Fuel Efficiency and Fuel Price Changes Applied to the Berlin City Network

Höltl, Arne; Heinrichs, Matthias; Macharis, Cathy

doi:10.1108/s2044-994120150000007021

Cited by 6 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…It is likely that cars which are more efficient will result in more car use. This rebound effect was studied for instance by [58]. Another unintended effect appears when higher shares of EV raise the demand for electricity which would then probably have to be generated using more fossil energy sources.…”

Section: Analysis Of Decarbonisation Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pathways to Decarbonise the European Car Fleet: A Scenario Analysis Using the Backcasting Approach

2017

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This paper analyses decarbonisation scenarios for the European passenger car fleet in 2050. The scenarios have been developed using the backcasting approach and aim to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of passenger cars to a level defined in the Transport White paper that is 60% below 1990 levels. Considering the emission levels of 2010, a yearly reduction of 1.7% is required in order to achieve the target. Car emissions were decomposed into the main emission factors of mobility, efficiency and carbon intensity. How these factors change over time depends on various external factors: the pace of technological improvements, the future role of cars in society's mobility system and the priority given to decarbonising energy demand. The analysis showed that if car mobility and ownership continue to increase as expected in a 'business as usual' case, a share of 97% plug-in hybrid or battery electric vehicles might be required by 2050, together with a substantial decrease in greenhouse gas emission from electricity production. A transition to more advanced car technology such as automated driving, advanced batteries or lightweight materials in vehicle production would raise vehicle efficiency. Should car mobility continue at a high level, an early technology transition will be required.

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Section: Analysis Of Decarbonisation Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pathways to Decarbonise the European Car Fleet: A Scenario Analysis Using the Backcasting Approach

2017

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“…The model has been used to simulate the travel behavior of an average weekday for all modes of transport within a regional analysis area [10,11]. In this example, the simulation covers the area of the city of Berlin, Germany, with 3.3 million inhabitants.…”

Section: Defining the Simulated Area And Example Measuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Introduction of car sharing into existing car fleets in microscopic travel demand modelling

Heinrichs

Krajzewicz

Cyganski

et al. 2017

Pers Ubiquit Comput

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Microscopic travel demand models take the characteristics of every individual person of the modelled population into account for computing the travel demand for the modelled region. Car sharing is an old concept, but the combination of a car sharing fleet parked in public space with smartphone services to find available cars nearby offers a new mobility service. It enables people to use a fleet operator's cars by providing individual mobility on demand. However, integrating this mobility option into microscopic travel demand models still is a difficult task due to a lack of data. This paper shows an integrated approach to model car sharing as a new mode for transport within a travel demand model using disaggregated car fleets with car-specific attributes. The necessary parameters for mode choice are estimated from various surveys and integrated into an existing multi-nominal logit model. The proposed work is used to simulate the travel demand of a synthetic population for the German capital of Berlin. A comparison with the survey results shows that the proposed integration of car sharing meets the real-world data. Furthermore, it is shown that the mode choice reacts well for access restrictions for specific car segments and local accessibility influencing the trip lengths.

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“…In case of car trips, these values can be used to calculate the CO 2 emission and traffic jams. A case of rebound effects regarding fuel efficiency improvements and the following increase in car traffic demand is shown and discussed in [2]. Because human behavior is not strictly logical or economical in every way these models have to deal with many uncertainties and cope with the errors statistically.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using Probability Distributions for Projecting Changes in Travel Behavior

Radke

Heinrichs

2021

Sustainability

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Mobility is a must for human life on this planet, because important activities like working or shopping cannot be done from home for everyone. Present modes of transports contributes significantly to green house gas emissions while the efforts to reduce these emissions can be improved in many countries. Pathways to a more sustainable form of mobility can be modelled using travel demand models to aid decision makers. However, to project human behavior into the future one should analyze the changes in the past to understand the drivers in mobility change. Mobility surveys provide sets of activity diaries, which show changes in travel behavior over time. Those activity diaries are one of the inputs in activity-based demand generation models like travel activity pattern simulation (TAPAS). This paper shows a method of using probability distributions between person and diary groups. It offers an opportunity for an increased heterogeneity in travel behavior without sacrificing too much accuracy. Additionally it will present the use case of temporal back- and forecasting of changes in activity choices of existing mobility survey data. The results show the possibilities within this approach together with its limits and pitfalls.

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Analysis of Effects Resulting from Improved Vehicle Fuel Efficiency and Fuel Price Changes Applied to the Berlin City Network

Cited by 6 publications

References 17 publications

Pathways to Decarbonise the European Car Fleet: A Scenario Analysis Using the Backcasting Approach

Pathways to Decarbonise the European Car Fleet: A Scenario Analysis Using the Backcasting Approach

Introduction of car sharing into existing car fleets in microscopic travel demand modelling

Using Probability Distributions for Projecting Changes in Travel Behavior

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