Analysis of extreme precipitation indices in the Marche region (central Italy), combined with the assessment of energy implications and hydrogeological risk

Gentilucci, Matteo; Barbieri, Maurizio; D'Aprile, Fabrizio; Zardi, Dino

doi:10.1016/j.egyr.2019.11.006

Cited by 21 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…This has allowed the coastal areas and nearby territories of the region to reach, and in some cases exceed, 16 °C of average annual temperature [38]. In the same way, a certain historical trend towards a decrease in rainfall in the area has been highlighted, especially in the summer months; this change is determining an extension of the Mediterranean climate in the area [39]. In order to estimate the ET0 in the area, 12 weather stations with The data were organized to obtain daily values and an accurate quality control has been set up for each individual variable.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 95%

Calculation of Potential Evapotranspiration and Calibration of the Hargreaves Equation Using Geostatistical Methods over the Last 10 Years in Central Italy

et al. 2021

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Potential evapotranspiration (ET0) is an indicator of great interest for water budget analysis and the agricultural sector. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to make the calculation reliable even if only the temperature data were present. In this research, the ET0 was initially calculated for a limited number of weather stations (12) using the Penman–Monteith method. In some cases, the simplified Penman–Monteith formula was adopted, while in others, as in the case of mountain weather stations, the complete formula was employed to consider the differences in vegetation, deduced from satellite surveys. Subsequently, the ET0 was calculated with the Hargreaves–Samani (HS) formula, calibrating the Hargreaves coefficient, through the spatialization of ET0, by the geostatistical method. The results showed a high reliability of the HS method in comparison with simplified PM (PM) method, and complete Penman–Monteith (cPM) method, with a minimum calibration of the empirical Hargreaves coefficient. In particular, a very good correlation between the results obtained in the mountain environment with the uncalibrated HS method and the cPM method was also observed in this area, while PM showed discordant and much higher results than ET0 compared with the other methods. It follows that this procedure allowed a more accurate estimate of potential evapotranspiration with a view to territory management, both in terms of water resources and the irrigation needs of the vegetation.

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Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 95%

Calculation of Potential Evapotranspiration and Calibration of the Hargreaves Equation Using Geostatistical Methods over the Last 10 Years in Central Italy

et al. 2021

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“…As aggressive precipitation becomes more frequent with global warming 75 , climate hazards may already have become more changeable and unpredictable on a small scale in disaster-affected areas of the central Mediterranean 76 . Gentilucci 77 also showed a trend towards more extreme rainfall events in central Italy during the 1961–2017 period. However, this occurs with different patterns of change over small areas with no consistent spatial and temporal trends emerging 78 .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 92%

A millennium-long climate history of erosive storms across the Tiber River Basin, Italy, from 725 to 2019 CE

Diodato¹,

Ljungqvist

Bellocchi

2021

Sci Rep

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Rainfall erosivity drives damaging hydrological events with significant environmental and socio-economic impacts. This study presents the world’s hitherto longest time-series of annual rainfall erosivity (725–2019 CE), one from the Tiber River Basin (TRB), a fluvial valley in central Italy in which the city of Rome is located. A historical perspective of erosive floods in the TRB is provided employing a rainfall erosivity model based on documentary data, calibrated against a sample (1923–1964) of actual measurement data. Estimates show a notable rainfall erosivity, and increasing variability, during the Little Ice Age (here, ~ 1250–1849), especially after c. 1495. During the sixteenth century, erosive forcing peaked at > 3500 MJ mm hm–2 h–1 yr–1 in 1590, with values > 2500 MJ mm hm–2 h–1 yr–1 in 1519 and 1566. Rainfall erosivity continued into the Current Warm Period (since ~ 1850), reaching a maximum of ~ 3000 MJ mm hm–2 h–1 yr–1 in the 1940s. More recently, erosive forcing has attenuated, though remains critically high (e.g., 2087 and 2008 MJ mm hm–2 h–1 yr–1 in 1992 and 2005, respectively). Comparison of the results with sediment production (1934–1973) confirms the model’s ability to predict geomorphological effects in the TRB, and reflects the role of North Atlantic circulation dynamics in central Italian river basins.

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“…The argument is that rainfall patterns follow cyclic patterns over the years ( Tyson et al, 1975 , 2002 ; Nel, 2009 ), meaning that it is very difficult to observe and conclude on a decrease or increase within a period of say thirty years. However, Gentilucci et al (2020) also reported a decreasing annual rainfall trend in Italy, using data from 55 meteorological stations spanning over 60 years. The increasing trends of drought detected in the present study are in line with previous reports despite the arguments on the changes in total annual rainfall.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC, 2014 ) reported that the frequency of droughts is expected to increase in future, a scenario that requires an in depth understanding of drought patterns for specific localities. A better understanding of inter annual drought occurrences is crucial for mitigation and adaptation measures in agricultural planning and water resources management ( Kampata et al., 2008 ; Tfwala et al., 2018 ; Gentilucci et al., 2020 ). The assessment of droughts at continental, regional and local scales is vital for planning and management of water resources ( Masih et al., 2014 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nationwide temporal variability of droughts in the Kingdom of Eswatini: 1981–2018

Tfwala

Mengistu

Seyama

et al. 2020

Heliyon

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For adequate mitigation and adaptation measures, it is essential to have detailed analysis of droughts patterns. This study determined the i) occurrence and severity of droughts ii) drought recurrence frequencies and iii) drought trends across different agro-ecological zones in the Kingdom of Eswatini for the period 1981 to 2018. A Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) computed from long-term precipitation data measured from six meteorological stations was used to determine drought occurrence and severity. Python software (Version 3.6) was applied on the SPI values to predict the recurrence of drought events over time in years. The SPI showed that in the Highveld, 42% of the droughts were moderate, 32% were severe and the remaining 26%, which all occurred post 1980 were extreme (SPI -2.34 to -2.82). The Middleveld had an even proportion of drought categories (29–35%). The Lowveld recorded 62% of moderate, 8% severe and 30% extreme droughts of which 70% occurred post 2000. Moderate droughts were found to recur every 4–5 years while extreme droughts are expected every 13–21 years. These findings are essential for mitigation and adaptation measures geared towards the adverse effects of droughts.

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Analysis of extreme precipitation indices in the Marche region (central Italy), combined with the assessment of energy implications and hydrogeological risk

Cited by 21 publications

References 15 publications

Calculation of Potential Evapotranspiration and Calibration of the Hargreaves Equation Using Geostatistical Methods over the Last 10 Years in Central Italy

Calculation of Potential Evapotranspiration and Calibration of the Hargreaves Equation Using Geostatistical Methods over the Last 10 Years in Central Italy

A millennium-long climate history of erosive storms across the Tiber River Basin, Italy, from 725 to 2019 CE

Nationwide temporal variability of droughts in the Kingdom of Eswatini: 1981–2018

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