Analysis of extreme waves with seasonal variation in the gulf of Mexico using a time-dependent GEV model

Calderón-Vega, Felícitas; Vázquez-Hernández, A.O.; García–Soto, Adrián David

doi:10.1016/j.oceaneng.2013.08.007

Cited by 13 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…The study was carried out for several buoy sites in the Gulf of Mexico, but it was not performed for buoys in the Pacific. The use of stationary models is very common when carrying out analyses of extremes, however, as already mentioned and found in a previous study [25], seasonality may play a role in the probabilistic characterization of meteo-oceanographic variables, and it may also have an impact on design, management and reliability-oriented tasks; furthermore, since meteo-oceanographic variables are directly linked to climate change detection, vulnerability, future projection and sustainability of coasts and coastal infrastructure [26,27], an impact due to seasonality effects would be expected on all these issues for extreme waves. Although not pursued in the present study, the relation between extreme wave heights and sustainability (using stationary versus non-stationary models) could be explored in future projects; the present study can be considered as a first step in that direction.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 84%

“…Therefore, since it is known that data for some years may be absent (e.g., due to buoys maintenance), a minimum of data per time unit is considered to define the maximum values, by adopting the criterion of rejecting maximum monthly events with data blank spaces of up to 40% e.g. [25].…”

Section: Maximal Weibull or Reversed Weibullmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…More recently [24] referred to the Bayesian inference for modelling extreme values of characteristic marine environments and for designing maritime structures. Calderón-Vega et al [25] investigated the seasonality of extreme waves in the Gulf of Mexico; it was found that, for the Gulf of Mexico, there is indeed seasonality effects on the extreme values; moreover, two clear peaks were found which are associated to hurricanes and cold fronts in distinctives seasons of the year. The study was carried out for several buoy sites in the Gulf of Mexico, but it was not performed for buoys in the Pacific.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Single Site Extreme Wave Analysis in the Pacific Ocean Comparing Stationary and Non-stationary GEV Models

Calderón-Vega

Mösso

García–Soto

2019

CJAST

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The adequate knowledge of the weather behavior is very important for the design and management of socioeconomical, environmental and sustainability human interests in the coasts and oceans. In the present study an extreme value analysis of maximum significant waves recorded at a buoy located in the Pacific Ocean was carried out. The analysis was carried out from two perspectives, by considering a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) model with stationary distribution (i.e., the time variations are not accounted for), and by considering a non-stationary GEV model, which incorporates the monthly seasonality of maximum observed values in time increments; the maximum significant wave behavior was parameterized using harmonic functions for the distribution measures. Both approaches were compared for a single buoy. In the study a seasonality effect was found, which was also present at the Gulf of Mexico in previous studies, and which cannot be captured by a stationary model.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 84%

Section: Maximal Weibull or Reversed Weibullmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Single Site Extreme Wave Analysis in the Pacific Ocean Comparing Stationary and Non-stationary GEV Models

Calderón-Vega

Mösso

García–Soto

2019

CJAST

Self Cite

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“…Nonstationarity was introduced in GEV-models for extreme waves in order to account for seasonality in Ref. [22], but in the study presented herein, the focus is on long-term trends and seasonality can be ignored when analysing annual maxima.…”

Section: Non-stationary Extreme Value Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Non-stationary extreme value models to account for trends and shifts in the extreme wave climate due to climate change

Vanem

2015

Applied Ocean Research

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“…Ferro and Segers [11] and Fawcett and Walshaw [12] discussed modeling of clustered extremes. Calderon-Vega et al [15] modeled seasonal variation of extremes in the Gulf of Mexico using a time-dependent GEV model. Ruggiero et al [14] reported increasing wave heights and extreme value projections for the U.S. Pacific Northwest.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of Storm Peak and Intrastorm Directional–Seasonal Design Conditions in the North Sea

Feld

Randell

et al. 2015

Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering

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Specification of realistic environmental design conditions for marine structures is of fun damental importance to their reliability over time. Design conditions for extreme waves and storm severities are typically estimated by extreme value analysis of time series of measured or hindcast significant wave height, Hs. This analysis is complicated by two effects. First, Hs exhibits temporal dependence. Second, the characteristics of Hf are nonstationary with respect to multiple covariates, particularly wave direction, and sea son. We develop directional-seasonal design values for storm peak significant wave height (Hf) by estimation of, and simulation under a nonstationary extreme value model for Hf. Design values for significant wave height (Hs) are estimated by simulating storm trajectories of Hs consistent with the simulated storm peak events. Design distributions for individual maximum wave height (H^fi are estimated by marginalization using the known conditional distribution for Hm ax given Hs. Particular attention is paid to the assess ment of model bias and quantification of model parameter and design value uncertainty using bootstrap resampling. We also outline existing work on extension to estimation of maximum crest elevation and total extreme water level.

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Analysis of extreme waves with seasonal variation in the gulf of Mexico using a time-dependent GEV model

Cited by 13 publications

References 25 publications

Single Site Extreme Wave Analysis in the Pacific Ocean Comparing Stationary and Non-stationary GEV Models

Single Site Extreme Wave Analysis in the Pacific Ocean Comparing Stationary and Non-stationary GEV Models

Non-stationary extreme value models to account for trends and shifts in the extreme wave climate due to climate change

Estimation of Storm Peak and Intrastorm Directional–Seasonal Design Conditions in the North Sea

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