Analysis of Factors Influencing the Usage of Seasonal Forecast in Drought Prone Area

Abstract

This research aims to investigate factors influencing the households in East Nusa Tenggara (NTT) Indonesia to use seasonal forecast issued by the Meteorological Office (BMKG) Indonesia. NTT is a highly vulnerable region to drought, and hence, understanding the future weather and climate condition is a crucial issue. Household survey was conducted to interview 300 households in NTT asking about their intention to utilize the forecast information in supporting their livelihood. Furthermore, this research investigates whether the households characteristics influencing the intention. Using the Classification and Regression Tree (CART), this research found that the intention to use forecast is dominantly influenced by age of the household head, ownership of household assets, main source of income, crop and livestock activities and water source for livestock.