Analysis of frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall events with potential impacts on flooding: a case study from the central United States

Abstract

Climate variability and change can impact rainfall by varying time, location, magnitude, and frequency of precipitation events. Fluctuations in heavy rainfall events can impact flooding and drought events and water management systems. This research addresses temporal and spatial distributions of extreme daily and monthly rainfall in Kansas using daily rainfall data from 23 stations for the period 1890–2013. The Mann–Kendall non‐parametric method was used in trend analysis. Results indicate an increasing trend in the annual daily maximum rainfall, and an increase in the annual number of rainfall events above the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentile thresholds at a majority of stations since 1890. The most recent 30‐year climate normal period (1981–2010) was selected to assess contemporary change compared to the entire period (1890–2013). Most stations have a steeper positive slope for all extreme rainfall parameters for 1981–2010. Generally, western Kansas receives smaller and fewer extreme storms than eastern Kansas with respect to both magnitude and frequency. Since 1890, June has been the month that receives the greatest amount of rain in each year at a majority of stations (18 of 23). Stations in eastern Kansas tend to experience earlier maximum rainfall on a monthly basis than central and western stations. Earlier annual maximum monthly rains can affect soil moisture and runoff generation. Timely maintenance and improvement in water, soil, and flood management systems are necessary in order to increase preparedness of the society to flash floods and protect them from water management systems failures.

Examining Storage Capacity Loss and Sedimentation Rate of Large Reservoirs in the Central U.S. Great Plains

“…Streamflow is the source of sediment in the reservoirs, and higher sediment yield generally is expected in areas receiving higher precipitation [60]. Higher magnitude and frequency of extreme daily and annual rainfall events has been found in eastern Kansas [24]. Higher runoff carries more sediment, resulting in generally higher capacity loss for eastern reservoirs in Kansas [12].…”

“…In the Great Plains, the majority of large federal reservoirs were designed and built in the 20th century principally to control flooding and secondarily to provide water for a number of human uses. Now well into the 21st century, many communities are faced with greater water demands but less available water due to reservoir sedimentation in conjunction with potentially more common episodic weather extremes, including both flooding and drought [18][19][20][21][22][23][24].…”

Kansas Trends and Changes in Temperature, Precipitation, Drought, and Frost‐Free Days from the 1890s to 2015

“…There were no statistically significant trends in seasonal precipitation amount at the 95% confidence level. For the whole U.S., extreme precipitation events are increasing (Karl et al ) and data for Kansas documents a statewide increase in the magnitude of extreme rainfall events, with greater increases in the east (Rahmani et al ). At the 90% confidence level of statistical significance, seasonally, only spring precipitation showed an upward trend.…”

Interviews of Mongolian herders and high resolution precipitation data reveal an increase in short heavy rains and thunderstorm activity in semi-arid Mongolia

“…Soil moisture is essential for plant growth. But short intense rains often runoff quickly and cause flooding (Rahmani et al 2015) and along with increased evapotranspiration can result in decreased soil moisture . Reduced soil moisture can affect agricultural crop production for rural and indigenous peoples (Bates et al 2008;Lesk et al 2016).…”