Analysis of growth functions that can increase irrigated wheat yield under climate change

Abstract

This study assessed the growth of wheat under climate change conditions (increases in CO2 and temperature) in southwestern Iran. Future climate data were projected using long‐term climate data for radiation and minimum and maximum temperatures for the baseline period 1980–2010. The future climate scenarios made use of delta changes from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in the R package of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project for 2040–2070. After generating the weather data, the Agricultural Production System Simulator wheat model was applied to assess the potential impact of climate change on wheat yield and the relative growth rate, crop growth rate, total dry weight and leaf area index. Averaged across all locations, an increase of 1.6 and 2.3°C in annual temperature was projected under representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5, respectively. The decrease in the average length of the growing season was 7.5 and 9.3% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, in the mid‐21st century with respect to baseline. The mean cumulative radiation will decrease by 11.6 and 14.3% averaged across all sites for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Grain yield will decrease at all sites for both RCPs. The greatest decrease in wheat yield was projected for Izeh under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (7.9 and 9.3%, respectively) for 2040–2070 relative to baseline. A greater grain yield at baseline than for the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios was closely related to higher leaf area index, relative growth rate and crop growth rate values during the reproductive phase. Thus, these parameters can be defined as indicators of crop yield.

Wheat (Triticum aestivum) adaptability evaluation in a semi-arid region of Central Morocco using APSIM model

“…The ability of APSIM-Wheat model to predict yield in the semi-arid environment was confirmed by previous studies 91 – 95 . Application of APSIM-Wheat for grain yield simulation showed reasonable predictive results not only in semi-arid climate 43 , 46 , 96 – 99 , but also in arid 44 , 45 , 100 and Mediterranean 41 , 42 , 101 – 103 environments.…”

GIS-Based Land Suitability and Crop Vulnerability Assessment under Climate Change in Chtouka Ait Baha, Morocco

“…Our findings also converge with studies carried out in southwestern Iran, that suggested a shortening of the wheat-growing season length of 7.5 and 9.3% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, for 2040-2070 with respect to the baseline, 1980-2010. [36]. Reference [37] reported that temperatures during the growth period for winter wheat under climate change would increase significantly compared to baseline, while the length of the growing season would decrease.…”

“…Atmosphere 2020, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 15 of 25 respectively, for 2040-2070 with respect to the baseline, 1980-2010. [36]. Reference [37] reported that temperatures during the growth period for winter wheat under climate change would increase significantly compared to baseline, while the length of the growing season would decrease.…”

Uptake of climate-smart agricultural technologies and practices: a three-phase behavioral model

“…The wheat crop area worldwide is more than 220 million ha, with 5.7 million ha in Iran. Studies show that changes in climatic factors such as temperature will affect wheat yield (Eyni-Nargeseh et al, 2020). The agricultural sector in Iran produces about 18% of the GDP, 25% of non-oil exports, 20% of employment, and 85% of the total food supply, therefore it plays a very significant role in economic growth.…”