Abstract. Geothermal energy is an important and sustainable
resource that has more potential than is currently utilized. Whether or not
a deep geothermal resource can be exploited, mostly depends on, besides
temperature, the utilizable reservoir volume over time, which in turn
largely depends on petrophysical parameters. We show, using over 1000 (n=1027) 4-D finite-element models of a simple
geothermal doublet, that the lifetime of a reservoir is a complex function
of its geological parameters, their heterogeneity, and the background
hydraulic gradient (BHG). In our models, we test the effects of porosity,
permeability, and BHG in an isotropic medium. Furthermore, we simulate the
effect of permeability contrast and anisotropy induced by layering,
fractures, and a fault. We quantify the lifetime of the reservoir by
measuring the time to thermal breakthrough, i.e. how many years pass before
the temperature of the produced fluid falls below the 100 ∘C
threshold. The results of our sensitivity study attest to the positive
effect of high porosity; however, high permeability and BHG can combine to
outperform the former. Particular configurations of all the parameters can
cause either early thermal breakthrough or extreme longevity of the
reservoir. For example, the presence of high-permeability fractures, e.g.
in a fault damage zone, can provide initially high yields, but it channels
fluid flow and therefore dramatically restricts the exploitable reservoir
volume. We demonstrate that the magnitude and orientation of the BHG,
provided permeability is sufficiently high, are the prime parameters that
affect the lifetime of a reservoir. Our numerical experiments show also that
BHGs (low and high) can be outperformed by comparatively small variations in
permeability contrast (103) and fracture-induced permeability
anisotropy (101) that thus strongly affect the performance of
geothermal reservoirs.