Analysis of high-resolution simulations for the Black Forest region from a point of view of tourism climatology – a comparison between two regional climate models (REMO and CLM)

Endler, Christina; Matzarakis, Andreas

doi:10.1007/s00704-010-0311-x

Cited by 17 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…That the CCLM is 'too cold' is a known problem also observed by Böhm et al (2006) and Jacob et al (2007). In a direct comparison of REMO and CCLM by Endler & Matzarakis (2010), the CCLM was colder than the REMO model. For the REMO model, the results for Freiburg are only slightly too cold.…”

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confidence: 58%

Viticulture in southwest Germany under climate change conditions

Neumann¹,

Matzarakis²

2011

Clim. Res.

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We estimated changes in viticulture conditions over the 21st century in BadenWürttemberg, southwest Germany, using scenario runs of 3 regional climate models for 1961-1990, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. The scenario runs were compared and validated with local observational data. By applying the Huglin Index, possible expansions of areas suitable for viticulture, as well as suitable grape varieties for the region, were determined. Optimal grape varieties are changing to those more suitable to a warmer climate. This development was found in all examined simulation runs. KEY WORDS: Viticulture · Southwest Germany · Huglin Index · REMO · CLM · WETTREG Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisherClim Res 47: 161-169, 2011 162 by Stock (2005) using primarily a statistical regional climate model (SRCM) STAR. The scenarios used cover the time period up to 2055, and the main method applied was the Huglin Index (HI, Huglin 1978). The HI is a commonly used heat summation index to identify suitable areas for different grape varieties, and has been applied in studies of Tonietto & Carbonneau (2004) as well as Petgen (2007).In the present study, we examined the possible expansion of suitable areas for different grape varieties, using the HI, for 3 different periods, 1961-1990, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. Simulation runs of 2 dynamical regional climate models (DRCMs) were used, the regional model REMO, developed by the Max-PlanckInstitute for Meteorology (Jacob & Podzun 1997, Jacob et al. 2007, and the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO) model in climate limited-area Modelling (CLM) mode (COSMO-CLM or CCLM) (Steppeler et al. 2003. The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B and B1 were used for the simulation runs (IPCC 2007). Both emission scenarios are based on the assumption of an integrated world with rapid economic growth. B1 includes reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resourceefficient technologies, together with a change to a more service and information orientated economy. A1B comprises the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies together with a balanced use of all energy sources, but is less focused on environmental sustainability than B1. For 2 different climate stations, the model output is validated and compared with simulations of the statistical based regional climate model WETTREG of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology (Enke et al. 2006, Spekat et al. 2007). The present study assesses potential changes and examines the possible expansion of those areas suitable for viticulture over a long time scale (up to 2100) according to the 2 DRCMs. In addition, we discuss possible limits of the models used and of the HI. DATA AND METHODSData from 3 models, 2 dynamical and one statistical, were used to validate the results and were coupled with observation data for verification purposes. To determine values for a particular point, an inverse distance weighted interpolation was applied using the surrounding dynamic...

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confidence: 58%

Viticulture in southwest Germany under climate change conditions

Neumann¹,

Matzarakis²

2011

Clim. Res.

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“…Use of RCM Data for VIA Applications By now, the literature on RCM applications to VIA assessment studies is quite extensive, and here only some illustrative examples are given. Output from RCM simulations has been used to assess impacts in different regional contexts and sectors including agriculture (e.g., Liu et al, 2018;Mearns, 2003;Olesen et al, 2007); hydrology (e.g., Graham et al, 2007;Jha et al, 2004;Teutschbein & Seibert, 2010); snow-driven runoff timing (e.g., Coppola et al, 2018;Rauscher et al, 2008); storm surges and extreme winds (e.g., Rockel & Woth, 2007;Woth et al, 2006); health issues such as vector borne diseases (e.g., Ermert et al, 2011;Rodo et al, 2013), heat stress (e.g., Huang et al, 2011;Im et al, 2017Im et al, , 2018Pal & Eltahir, 2016), pollen-related diseases (e.g., Lake et al, 2018), and pollution-related diseases (e.g., Knowlton et al, 2004); air quality (e.g., Meleux et al, 2007;Weaver et al, 2009); fire risk (e.g., Bedia et al, 2014;Flannigan et al, 2001;Moriondo et al, 2006); natural ecosystem responses (e.g., Koca et al, 2006); wind (e.g., Pryor & Barthelmie, 2011;Tobin et al, 2015Tobin et al, , 2016 and photovoltaic (e.g., Jerez et al, 2015) energy production; and tourism (e.g., Endler & Matzarakis, 2011). Data from RCM-based projects such as EURO-CORDEX (Jacob et al, 2013), MED-CORDEX (Ruti et al, 2016), NARCCAP (Mearns et al, 2012), and NarCLim (Evans et al, 2014), or other nationa...…”

Section: Simulation Length and Resolutionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Thirty Years of Regional Climate Modeling: Where Are We and Where Are We Going next?

2019

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The year 2019 marks the thirtieth anniversary of the development of the first regional climate model (RCM), and here an overview is provided of the progress in regional modeling research and of the main challenges lying ahead. RCMs were primarily developed to provide fine‐scale climate information for impact studies, but they have evolved into general and multipurpose modeling tools. Among the main achievements in RCM research the focus is on: the development of community RCMs applicable to a wide variety of studies and regional contexts; the increase of model simulation length up to centennial scales and spatial resolutions up to convection‐permitting scales (few kilometers), leading to a better understanding of regional to local climate change signals; the development of fully coupled Regional Earth System Models; the inception of intercomparison projects culminating in the international Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment; the extensive use of RCM simulations for impact assessments; and the involvement of the scientific community from developing countries in climate modeling research. Among the outstanding issues in need of more attention are the Added Value of using this downscaling technique; various technical aspects concerning RCM simulations; and uncertainties in RCM‐based climate projections. Future directions in RCM research are discussed, with highlight on: transition to convection‐permitting modeling systems; further development of Regional Earth System Models including the human component; next phase of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment project; and use of RCMs in the distillation of actionable information for contribution to climate service activities. A brief historical overview of regional climate modeling is also presented.

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“…Hagemann et al 2009, Endler & Matzarakis 2010, Früh et al 2010, Kjellström et al 2011). According to the study by Reichler & Kim (2008), EH5OM is one of the most successful CMIP3 1 global models in simulating the climate of the 20th century.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Near-future climate change over Europe with focus on Croatia in an ensemble of regional climate model simulations

Branković¹,

Patarčić²,

Güttler³

et al. 2012

Clim. Res.

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The RegCM climate model was used at a 35 km resolution to downscale the 3-member global ECHAM5/MPI-OM ensemble based on the IPCC A2 scenario covering the EuropeanMediterranean domain. Within the reference climate (1961−1990), the model high 2 m temperatures (T2m) were reduced and low temperatures were increased relative to verification in a large portion of the domain. Precipitation was underestimated in summer over the Mediterranean region but was overestimated over western Europe in winter, probably due to excessive westerlies in the global model. When RegCM was forced by ERA-40, the dominant errors in the summer T2m appear to be genuine RegCM errors, but a large fraction of errors in winter precipitation was imported from the lateral boundaries. In the near future (2011−2040), the summer T2m is projected to increase by +1.8°C over southwest Europe. The simulated change in precipitation is small and is significant only in regions around the Mediterranean. The wetter north and drier south, a major feature in projections of the European winter climate in the late 21st century, is not predicted for the near future. Similarly, summer drying is confined to western Europe in contrast to nearly continental scale drying observed in projections of the late 21st century. This finding may influence the approaches for adaptation to climate change in the first half and at the end of this century. The effects of downscaling at small scales are analysed for the case of Croatia. The spatial distribution of the number of days with extreme T2m and precipitation in RegCM is consistent with observations. However, this metric is generally underestimated, indicating that over complex orography, even higher horizontal resolution is needed to better resolve climate extremes.

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Analysis of high-resolution simulations for the Black Forest region from a point of view of tourism climatology – a comparison between two regional climate models (REMO and CLM)

Cited by 17 publications

References 31 publications

Viticulture in southwest Germany under climate change conditions

Viticulture in southwest Germany under climate change conditions

Thirty Years of Regional Climate Modeling: Where Are We and Where Are We Going next?

Near-future climate change over Europe with focus on Croatia in an ensemble of regional climate model simulations

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