Analysis of Hydrometeorological Trends and Drought Severity in Water-Demanding Mediterranean Islands under Climate Change Conditions

Abstract

Global climate change has emerged as a problem in recent years, and its effects will likely continue to increase in the future. Several scientific studies conducted in the Mediterranean region have demonstrated relatively stationary trends for annual precipitation and significant upward trends for mean annual temperature. These trends present several implications, especially in the Greek islands that serve as major summer tourist destinations where the population is already unable to meet their water demands. The aim of this study is to investigate both long- and short-term variations in temperature and precipitation on three Greek islands in the Mediterranean Sea (Mykonos, Naxos, and Kos). The temperature and rainfall trends, as well as their magnitudes at yearly, seasonal, and monthly time steps, were determined using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall trend test. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was employed to identify the drought periods. According to the results, precipitation slightly increased (almost stationary) in the three islands, although this rise was not statistically significant. All three islands experienced a sharp and statistically significant increase in their mean annual air temperatures. The region may experience drought episodes as a result of the high temperature increase, which would drastically reduce the amount of water, available for use due to the increased evapotranspiration. For the Mediterranean region, the necessity for a drought management strategy to stop or diminish the severity of drought episodes and their effects has grown into a matter of great concern. It is crucial to take measures and conduct relevant research in order to create the conditions for adaptation and mitigation of climate change consequences and the increased appearance of drought phenomena.

Trend analysis and forecast of annual precipitation and temperature series in the Eastern Mediterranean region

“…Taking as an example the case of Greece, regional precipitation trends in recent years are mostly stationary, with a few of them positive/negative and significant (Margaritidis, 2021;Sakalis, 2022;Stathi et al, 2023). On the other hand, in the case of temperature, a statistically significant increase in air temperature in recent decades is more pronounced (Proutsos et al, 2020Kastridis et al, 2022Stathi et al, 2023). However, the investigation of regional trends is beyond the scope of the present study.…”

“…Precipitation trends are relative to several factors, such as the altitude of the region, orientation, distance from the sea, etc. Taking as an example the case of Greece, regional precipitation trends in recent years are mostly stationary, with a few of them positive/negative and significant (Margaritidis, 2021;Sakalis, 2022;Stathi et al, 2023). On the other hand, in the case of temperature, a statistically significant increase in air temperature in recent decades is more pronounced (Proutsos et al, 2020Kastridis et al, 2022Stathi et al, 2023).…”

“…On a national basis, these trends have been addressed by the studies of Pnevmatikos and Katsoulis (2006), Feidas et al (2007), Philandras et al (2008), Kambezidis et al (2010), Nastos et al (2011), Mamara et al (2015), Feidas (2017), Tzanis et al (2019), Kastridis et al (2022), Sakalis (2022), Varlas et al (2022), Stathi et al (2023), referred to Greece; Kadioğlu (1997), Türkeş (1999), Türkeş et al (2002), Türkeş and Erlat (2003), Partal and Kahya (2006), Hadi and Tombul (2018), Topuz et al (2020), Mersin et al (2022), Todaro et al (2022), Aalijahan et al (2023), referred to Turkey; Ben-Gai et al (1999), al-Rimmawi et al (2010, Givati and Rosenfeld (2013), Shadeed (2013), Yosef et al (2019), Ajjur and al-Ghamdi (2021), Salameh et al (2022), referred to Israel; Price et al (1999), Giannakopoulos et al (2010), Zaifoğlu et al (2017), Zittis et al (2021), referred to Cyprus; and Shaban (2011) and Ramadan et al (2013), referred to Lebanon.…”

Analysis of Hydrometeorological Characteristics and Water Demand in Semi-Arid Mediterranean Catchments under Water Deficit Conditions

“…However, the lack of the necessary water exploitation projects, mainly for the surface runoff, has led to the intense water supply problems that the islands struggle with. The necessity of the water harvesting projects becomes even more important, under the conditions of significant increases in temperature [9,[65][66][67][68][69], where the increase in evapotranspiration constitutes a highly likely scenario, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. Previous studies conducted in the Mediterranean region revealed that under various climate change scenarios, the water balance could be significantly affected.…”

Assessing Groundwater Recharge in the Wabe River Catchment, Central Ethiopia, through a GIS-Based Distributed Water Balance Model

“…Quantifying the groundwater recharge rate is necessary for effective and long-term groundwater management [11]. This results from ongoing global environmental changes, such as climate change, land use changes, and, ultimately, adaptation processes; hence, it is crucial to determine how these changes will affect groundwater recharge and resources [12,13].…”