Analysis of Lake Area Dynamics and Driving Forces in the Jianghan Plain Based on GEE and SEM for the Period 1990 to 2020

Abstract

The lakes of Jianghan Plain, as an important component of the water bodies in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River plain, have made significant contributions to maintaining the ecological health and promoting the sustainable development of the Jianghan Plain. However, there is a relatively limited understanding regarding the trends of lake area change for different types of lakes and their dominant factors over the past three decades in the Jianghan Plain. Based on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, combined with the water body index method, the changes in area of three different types of lakes (area > 1 km2) in the Jianghan Lake Group from 1990 to 2020 were extracted and analyzed. Additionally, the Partial least squares structural equation model (PLS-SEM) was utilized to analyze the driving factors affecting the changes in water body area of these lakes. The results show that from 1990 to 2020, the area of the lakes of the wet season and level season exhibited a decreasing trend, decreasing by 893.1 km2 and 77.9 km2, respectively. However, the area of dry season lakes increased by 59.27 km2. The areas of all three types of lakes reached their minimum values in 2006. According to the PLS-SEM results, the continuous changes in the lakes’ area are mainly controlled by environmental factors overall. Furthermore, human factors mainly influence the mutation of the lakes’ area. This study achieved precise extraction of water body areas and accurate analysis of driving factors, providing a basis for a comprehensive understanding of the dynamic changes in the lakes of Jianghan Plain, which is beneficial for the rational utilization and protection of water resources.