Analysis Of Local Stability Of The Model On COVID-19 Spread In DKI Jakarta Province

Abstract

The province of DKI Jakarta in Indonesia has an advanced amount of COVID-19 incidents. Hence its dispersion must be restrained. The SEAIQHRD (Susceptible, Exposed, Asymptomatic, Infected, Quarantined, Hospitalized, Recovery, Deceased) model for the dispersion of COVID-19 was evolved in this article. Next, using NGM method to compute basic reproduction number and employing Routh-Hurwitz criterion method to analyze its local stability. Further, two equilibrium points, namely: endemic and disease-free equilibrium points, are obtained. The value of basic reproduction number is used to determine stability analysis. If basic reproduction number less than one, then the endemic equilibrium point is considered asymptotically stable. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the recovery rate of those who are symptomatic subpopulations can help stop the propagation of COVID-19 illness. This article employs data from the DKI Jakarta Province in numerical simulations to depict the dynamics of the COVID-19 dispersion model. According to the analysis's findings, the COVID-19 dispersion model is asymptotically stable at the endemic equilibrium point with ℜ0=2,1966. This indicate that the average of each infected individual can infect two susceptible persons so that the number of infected person will increase over time and cause an outbreak, which means that COVID-19 will remain in the community.