Analysis of Patients Flow in an Emergency Ward Using Fuzzy Critical Path Method and Fuzzy Program Evalution and Review Technique (a Case Study of Aminu Kano Teaching Hospital, Kano, Nigeria)

Abstract

In this paper, a mathematical model is proposed to handle project scheduling problem under vagueness. This is done by assuming the durations of activities to be imprecise and represented by trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. In particular, the paper aimed to model patients flow process in imprecise or vague circumstances using critical path analysis. Furthermore, the research discusses utilization of fuzzy critical path method in conjunction with fuzzy program evaluation and review technique to determine the duration required for the treatment of patients in emergency ward of Aminu Kano teaching hospital. The activities considered are those affecting patients flow during treatments in the emergency ward and the related project network is drawn. The reason for incorporating fuzzy logic in this research comes from the fact that fuzzy numbers are more reliable in dealing with ambiguous processes such as witnessed in the emergency ward of a hospital. The choice of emergency department for this work is because it is a major access point where from the beginning patients are given treatments for a wide range of sicknesses and injuries. These sicknesses and injuries may be deadly and requires prompt attention. Therefore, any delay in patient treatment in the emergency ward may result in undesired consequences and losses of lives. Findings through the application of fuzzy CPM and fuzzy PERT enabled the determination of the critical path, slack times and patients’ treatment expected completion time. The entire idea is to reduce unnecessary delay, eliminate unnecessary activities at the same time increase the quality of treatment of patients in the hospital