Analysis of Seasonal Changes of Accident Level on the Roads of State Importance and Their Impact on Road Accidents Statistics

Abstract

In the modern world, where more and more vehicles appear every day, the issue of traffic safety is becoming more acute. The most prospective method of traffic safety management, on our opinion, is the analysis of statistical data on road accidents (hereinafter accidents), which allows to determine the accident levele, causes of accidents, evaluate the effectiveness of implemented measures to improve traffic safety and more. As the main task of traffic safety ensuring is to reduce accident level and severity of the accidents consequences, and especially to reduce accidents with fatalities to a minimum, the analysis of accident statistics data plays a key role and is an integral part of a comprehensive approach to solve the issue of the traffic safety management. Qualitative analysis of accidents by various indicators allows determining the main causes that impact on the occurrence of accidents and the severity of their consequences. This article considers the formation of characteristics of seasonal changes in accident level on the network of state roads of Ukraine. The study allows identifying the features and patterns of annual dynamics of road accidents with the definition of monthly maximum and determining the features of seasonal stability of accident level indexes. Taking into account the seasonal variability of the accident level allows rationally planning the activities of transport organizations directed on preventing road accidents and reducing the severity of their consequences. Keywords: accident level, analysis of seasonal changes of accident level, traffic safety, statistics of road accidents.

Probabilistic model for assessing accident rates

“…It should be noted that the accident rates in the statistical databases are presented for a long-term period, which in general allows us to assess the dynamics of changes in the indicators under consideration in the country and draw a conclusion about the effectiveness of the measures taken in the field of road safety. Over the years, a large number of studies in this area are based on these indicators [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11], which consider various approaches to assessing both the number of incidents and the injured and injured in them. Within the framework of this article, a study was made of accident rates in Russia for the period 2015-2022. and a probabilistic model is proposed to evaluate the indicators under consideration.…”