Analysis of Segmented Sea level Time Series

Boretti, Alberto

doi:10.3390/app10020625

Cited by 5 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 25 publications

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“…Commonly used methods to extract 𝑆𝑇 !" include linear regression methods (Emery and Thomson, 2001;Boretti, 2020;Sreeraj et al, 2022) and the seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on loess (STL; Cleveland et al, 1990;Tseng et al, 2010;Nidheesh et al, 2013),…”

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Revisiting regression methods for estimating long-term trends in sea surface temperature

Chang,

Huang,

Cheng

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Abstract. Global warming has enduring consequences in the ocean, leading to increased sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and subsequent environmental impacts, including coral bleaching and intensified tropical storms. It is imperative to monitor these trends to enable informed decision-making and adaptation. In this study, we comprehensively examine commonly used methods for extracting long-term temperature trends, including the seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on loess (STL) and the linear regression family, which comprises ordinary least square regression (OLSR), orthogonal regression (OR), and geometric mean regression (GMR). The applicability and limitations of these methods are assessed based on experimental and simulated data. STL stands out as the most accurate method for extracting long-term trends. However, it is associated with a notably sizeable computational time. In contrast, linear regression methods are far more efficient. Among these methods, GMR is not suitable due to its inherent assumption of a random temporal component. OLSR and OR are preferable for general tasks but require correction to accurately account for seasonal signal-induced bias resulting from the phase-distance imbalance. We observe that this bias can be effectively addressed by trimming the SST data to ensure that the time series becomes an even function before applying linear regression. We introduced and evaluated an implementation using both simulated and realistic data.

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confidence: 99%

Revisiting regression methods for estimating long-term trends in sea surface temperature

Chang,

Huang,

Cheng

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Rates of sea-level rise from tide gauge measurements and satellite global positioning system along the Atlantic Coast of Africa

Boretti¹

2023

Arab J Geosci

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Extreme sea level rise along the Indian Ocean coastline: observations and 21st century projections

Sreeraj¹,

Swapna²,

Krishnan³

et al. 2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Anthropogenic sea-level rise poses challenges to coastal areas globally. The combined influence of rising mean sea level (MSL) and storm surges exacerbate the extreme sea level (ESL). Increasing ESL poses a major challenge for climate change adaptation of nearly 2.6 billion inhabitants in the Indian Ocean region. Yet, knowledge about past occurrences of ESL and its progression is limited. Combining multiple tide-gauge and satellite-derived sea-level data, we show that ESL has become more frequent, longer-lasting and intense along the Indian Ocean coastlines. We detect a 2-3-fold increase in ESL occurrence, with higher risk along the Arabian Sea coastline and the Indian Ocean Islands. Our results reveal that rising MSL is the primary contributor to ESL increase (more than 75%), with additional contribution from intensifying tropical cyclones. A two-fold increase in ESL along the Indian Ocean coastline is detected with an additional 0.50C warming of the Indian Ocean relative to pre-industrial levels. Utilizing the likely range (17th-83rd percentile as the spread) of IPCC MSL projections with considerable inter-model spread, we show that the Indian Ocean region will be exposed annually to the present-day 100-year ESL event by 2100, irrespective of the greenhouse-gas emission pathways, and by 2050 under the moderate-emission-mitigation-policy scenario. The study provides a robust regional estimate of ESL and its progression with rising MSL, which is important for climate change adaptation policies.

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Analysis of Segmented Sea level Time Series

Cited by 5 publications

References 25 publications

Revisiting regression methods for estimating long-term trends in sea surface temperature

Revisiting regression methods for estimating long-term trends in sea surface temperature

Rates of sea-level rise from tide gauge measurements and satellite global positioning system along the Atlantic Coast of Africa

Extreme sea level rise along the Indian Ocean coastline: observations and 21st century projections

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