Analysis of Severe Scarcity Situations in Finland’s Low Carbon Electricity System Until 2030

Abstract

This paper presents PLEXOS modelling of the Nordic and Baltic low-carbon electricity market until 2030, using a total of 35 different weather years’ (1982–2016) ERAA profiles as inputs for the modelling and focusing on the occurrence of severe electricity scarcity situations in Finland, analyzing their duration and depth. The expected development of generation and demand is modelled based on available authoritative sources, such as ENTSO-E TYNDP and national projections. The present amount of nuclear power in Finland and growing amounts of wind and solar generation across the Nordic electricity system are modelled. This study analyzes scarcity situations by calculating residual loads and the expected electricity spot market prices assuming the different weather years with the generation fleet and demand in 2024 and 2030 scenarios. This study finds that, despite the very significantly growing amount of variable renewable generation (42.5 TWh/a increase in wind generation from 2024 to 2030 in Finland only), the frequency and severity of scarcity situations will increase from 2024 to 2030. The main reasons are the retirement of Combined Heat and Power plants and the transition to more electrified district heating in Finland and the expected demand growth. The findings indicate that without further measures Finland is not sufficiently prepared for cold winter periods with high heating and electricity demand and events of serious scarcity can occur.