Analysis of short-term operational forecast deviations and controllability of utility-scale photovoltaic plants

Keeratimahat, Kanyawee; Bruce, Anna; MacGill, Iain

doi:10.1016/j.renene.2020.11.090

Cited by 6 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…However, there remain two major issues when integrating it into the power grid due to the consequent intermittent and fluctuating features (Chao, 2011;Kim et al, 2020). In addition, the grid dispatching center uses the forecasting power of the PV power station as reference for scheduling plan, but there is still a large deviation between forecasting power and actual generation (Keeratimahat et al, 2021), which may not only cause the occurrence of PV curtailment (Bird et al, 2016;Zhang et al, 2022a) but also result in low system reliability and security due to inadequate backup resources. Furthermore, it is possible to face high penalty for PV power station (Azimov and Avezova, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An optimal energy storage system sizing determination for improving the utilization and forecasting accuracy of photovoltaic (PV) power stations

Li²,

Yan³

et al. 2023

Front. Energy Res.

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As a new type of flexible regulation resource, energy storage systems not only smooth out the fluctuation of new energy generation but also track the generation scheduling combined with new energy power to enhance the reliability of new energy system operations. In recent years, installing energy storage for new on-grid energy power stations has become a basic requirement in China, but there is still a lack of relevant assessment strategies and techno-economic evaluation of the size determination of energy storage systems from the perspective of new energy power stations. Therefore, this paper starts from summarizing the role and configuration method of energy storage in new energy power stations and then proposes multidimensional evaluation indicators, including the solar curtailment rate, forecasting accuracy, and economics, which are taken as the optimization targets for configuring energy storage systems in PV power stations. Lastly, taking the operational data of a 4000 MWPV plant in Belgium, for example, we develop six scenarios with different ratios of energy storage capacity and further explore the impact of energy storage size on the solar curtailment rate, PV curtailment power, and economics. The method proposed in this paper is effective for the performance evaluation of large PV power stations with annual operating data, realizes the automatic analysis on the optimal size determination of energy storage system for PV power stations, and verifies the rationality of the principle for configuring energy storage for PV power stations in some regions of China.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An optimal energy storage system sizing determination for improving the utilization and forecasting accuracy of photovoltaic (PV) power stations

Li²,

Yan³

et al. 2023

Front. Energy Res.

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show abstract

“…The Australian National Energy Market (NEM) requires utility wind and solar generators to predict dispatch targets at 5-min intervals to regulate short-term demand-supply volatility in the operational market [44]. Generating forecasts at 5-min intervals can be challenging since forecasts have to be optimized for performance in real-time at very short-time scales.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of Solar Power Using Near-Real Time Satellite Data

Prasad

Kay

2021

Energies

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Solar energy production is affected by the attenuation of incoming irradiance from underlying clouds. Often, improvements in the short-term predictability of irradiance using satellite irradiance models can assist grid operators in managing intermittent solar-generated electricity. In this paper, we develop and test a satellite irradiance model with short-term prediction capabilities using cloud motion vectors. Near-real time visible images from Himawari-8 satellite are used to derive cloud motion vectors using optical flow estimation techniques. The cloud motion vectors are used for the advection of pixels at future time horizons for predictions of irradiance at the surface. Firstly, the pixels are converted to cloud index using the historical satellite data accounting for clear, cloudy and cloud shadow pixels. Secondly, the cloud index is mapped to the clear sky index using a historical fitting function from the respective sites. Thirdly, the predicated all-sky irradiance is derived by scaling the clear sky irradiance with a clear sky index. Finally, a power conversion model trained at each site converts irradiance to power. The prediction of solar power tested at four sites in Australia using a one-month benchmark period with 5 min ahead prediction showed that errors were less than 10% at almost 34–60% of predicted times, decreasing to 18–26% of times under live predictions, but it outperformed persistence by >50% of the days with errors <10% for all sites. Results show that increased latency in satellite images and errors resulting from the conversion of cloud index to irradiance and power can significantly affect the forecasts.

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Insights on designing effective and efficient frequency control arrangements from the Australian National Electricity Market

Prakash

Bruce

MacGill

2022

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews

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Analysis of short-term operational forecast deviations and controllability of utility-scale photovoltaic plants

Cited by 6 publications

References 20 publications

An optimal energy storage system sizing determination for improving the utilization and forecasting accuracy of photovoltaic (PV) power stations

An optimal energy storage system sizing determination for improving the utilization and forecasting accuracy of photovoltaic (PV) power stations

Prediction of Solar Power Using Near-Real Time Satellite Data

Insights on designing effective and efficient frequency control arrangements from the Australian National Electricity Market

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